Aemet maintains the warning of 180 l/m2 in Malaga and Valencia

The storm caused by the second DANA (Isolated High Level Depression) with high impact that Spain suffered in two weeks has passed its end critical phase. After having left the heaviest precipitation of the episode during the afternoon-night of Wednesday, the phenomenon is in the process of cyclogenesis by which it will be transformed into Isolated cold storm (BFA) in front of Cape Saint Vincent in Portugal, reports the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet).

During the transition, DANA will continue to move at a slower speed toward the southwest, which Aemet predicts will lead to increased instability in Western Andalusia. Throughout the day on Thursday, the most intense precipitation will move from Malaga towards the western coasts of Andalusia and around the strait, where accumulations of up to 100 l/m2 are expected. Seville, Huelva and Cádiz They would become the center of storms.

These storms are also expected at the other end of the Peninsula, Valencia coastlinewho has active red notice by being able to overcome 180 l/m2 in a few hours. “Both in the south and on the Mediterranean coast, we will continue under the height divergence zonethe area conducive to the generation of heavy showers and storms”, he explains to EL ESPAÑOL Samuel Bienerexpert of Weatherized. “Associated with maritime winds which bring humidity and regenerate precipitation on the same point, they are capable of causing major flood“.

The transformation into BFA “is part of the life cycle of certain DANAs”, explains the climatologist. The main difference in these circumstances is the development of a “well-defined surface pressure” which will send “front systems“due to its position above the Atlantic, “more predictable” than the behavior of DANA although its effects are very harmful. Precipitation is thus expected in several areas of the Mediterranean, the center and the southwest quadrant of the peninsula.

However, the main concern is once again in the Valencia region and surrounding areas. “In recent hours there have been predominances the gregal windsso the heaviest rains were concentrated north of Alicante and south of Valencia,” explains Biener. “What will happen is that the wind will blow towards the eastas the storm pushes a mass of warm air towards the peninsula. It must be remembered that The Mediterranean has temperatures up to 3 and a half degrees higher than usualwhich will provide more energy.

So, since this morning, the coast of Valencia has been on alert due to very intense and slow-moving storms. “High-resolution models show recordings of more than 200 liters per square meter occasionally”, warns the specialist. “And this affects certain areas affected by flooding. With muddy terrain and clogged sewers, it can be a new disasterHowever, he warns, it cannot be ruled out that mesoscale models “overestimate” forecasts.

There are other uncertain elements that may determine the final impact. “Most of the precipitation would fall in the coastal zone and in the pre-coastal“, and not as much in height, as happened in the Chiva region two weeks ago,” adds Biener. On the one hand, this would prevent the boulevards from suffering “floods as significant” as those in the previous episode. on the other hand, given the saturated soils, A reduction in precipitation could cause further flooding.

“These situations, typical of the Gulf of Valencia, are very complicated to predict. We are talking about cores of character that leave real floods and they move very, very slowly. This is the main problem”, laments the climatologist. “If these cores discharge in areas of the Ribera, they will cause a lot of damage, which unfortunately will be added to what happened two weeks ago. “

Episode ends Saturday

At the same time, reports Aemet, temperatures will experience an gradual recovery throughout this Thursday, with a moderate and general increasewhich can become notable locally. In Madrid a maximum of 17ºC will be reached and in several capitals it will exceed 20ºC, highlighting 22ºC in Orense. During the weekend, will reach 25ºC in the south.

Friday 15, the BFA will remain mainly stationary in the southwest of the Peninsula. The greatest likelihood of precipitation will occur in the southwest quadrant, “mainly in the western end of Andalusia“, where Aemet does not exclude that the showers are locally very heavy.

“On the Mediterranean slope, even if some precipitation could still occur, it would occur much weaker and dispersed,” adds the agency. From Saturday, precipitation would be mainly limited to the western end of the peninsula and would be of less intensity according to the most likely models. He the episode would end like this.