Africa far from Donald Trump’s priorities

In July 2015, Barack Obama visited Ethiopia and Kenya on his last official trip to the African continent. Kenya being his father’s country of origin, the significance of this trip was symbolic. It is even more so today. For nine years, no American president has set foot on African soil.

This absence could be prolonged if Joe Biden does not make the visit to Angola that he postponed in October. Donald Trump, re-elected for a second term in the White House on Wednesday, November 6, has never shown any interest in the African continent. He never visited there during his first term, between 2017 and 2021, and during a meeting in the Oval Office in January 2018, the American president showed his contempt for African states and Haiti by treating them as “shitty country”. Its only significant diplomatic action was, in December 2020, the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for Rabat’s opening of diplomatic relations with Israel.

“No concrete policy”

“Africa has never interested Donald Trump and, as far as I know, the term was not even mentioned during his presidential campaign,” underlines Jeff Hawkins, former US ambassador to the Central African Republic and researcher at the Institute for National and Strategic Research (IRIS). “American domestic politics was the main topic, adds Mamadou Diouf, historian and professor at Columbia University in New York. Africa is not really part of a foreign policy that focuses more on the Middle East, Ukraine or the relationship with China. » In Washington, the promoter of MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) had only received two African heads of state in four years: Muhammadu Buhari (Nigeria) and Uhuru Kenyatta (Kenya).

Cross-Atlantic travel by his inner circle was also rare during his first term. Mike Pompeo, his secretary of state between 2018 and 2021, once traveled to Senegal and Ethiopia. As for his wife Melania, she made a “Diplomatic and humanitarian visit” in Kenya, colonial helmet on the head and scandal to top it all off.

Donald Trump has also never deployed an African policy per se. In 2018, the US “strategy” was presented by John Bolton, national security adviser, during a speech at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. “He saw Africa as an economic battlefield against Russian and Chinese interests, but there was no concrete policy, remember jeff hawkins. The speech was America first, with thinly veiled threats against African countries that would not vote for the United States at international summits. »

Donald Trump would have liked to withdraw from US aid, but resistance from Congress allowed him to maintain the main initiatives and allocated budgets. The American Agency for International Development (USAID), thanks in particular to Prosper Africa, a plan aimed at promoting trade and investment in Africa to counter China’s economic expansion, remains the world’s largest donor to the continent. Until 2021, the amount of its aid amounted to about $7 billion per year.

But the situation could change. From Egypt to Ethiopia, passing through Senegal and the Ivory Coast, many African presidents have greeted “victory” of the Republican candidate and hoped, like Bola Tinubu in Nigeria, to be able to “coperate more economically” with the United States. What will it really be? In addition to the Senate, Republicans could gain an outright majority in the House of Representatives, giving MAGA all the levers of power.

“People imbued with their ideology will now occupy all hierarchical levels, especially in embassies.warns Jeff Hawkins. If the Prosper Africa programs were able to be sustained during the first term, it is because they did not involve the White House. The MAGA understood that it was necessary to massively change bureaucracy to have an impact on society. »

Visa restrictions

Thousands of Africans have already suffered from Donald Trump’s extreme protectionism. For “security reasons”his administration had interrupted or restricted the issuance of visas for nationals of Libya, Somalia or Sudan (since 2017), Ghana (in 2019), then Chad or Nigeria (since 2020). The arrival of students of African origin to American universities fell by almost half during the Trump era.

“He will try to cut the funds allocated to certain African associations and NGOs, explains Charles Petrie, a senior United Nations official who has worked in Sudan, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This will have consequences in many sectors, such as environmental protection, a topic that does not interest him. Aid for climate defense runs the risk of being redirected towards other causes, such as support for evangelists or against anti-abortion associations on the continent. »

But the new American president’s ideological approach could also suit many African leaders irritated by the promotion of LGBTQ+ rights that Westerners often address. “Countries like Uganda [où une loi votée en 2023 réprime très sévèrement l’homosexualité] once had a bad reputation, underlines Mamadou Diouf. Under Trump, its leaders could now be decorated. »

On a military level, Donald Trump could maintain his support for the United States Africa Command (Africom), created in 2007 to coordinate security activities on the continent and support the fight against jihadist groups. “He never opposed it, but during his first term there was talk of a troop reduction in Niger, remembers Jeff Hawkins. Closing the base near Niamey had been discussed, but in the end the Nigeriens did it themselves. » Their supposed disinterest in the continent could also leave the field open to Russian paramilitary groups, such as Wagner and Afrika Corps.

Before resigning from the supreme candidacy, Joe Biden chose to travel to Angola at the end of the year for his first trip to the African continent. During their mandate, Kamala Harris, as vice president, and Anthony Blinken, secretary of State, had made several visits, such as in January 2024 (Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Angola) to “ emphasize respect for democracy”, According to Anthony Blinken. “The nature of the regimes, dictatorial or not, will matter much less for Trump than for his predecessors, concludes Jeff Hawkins. The Biden and Obama administrations were trying to talk about respecting human rights with African leaders. Trump will never support such a measure. »

In “Project 2025,” a 900-page document published by the Heritage Foundation and intended to serve as a blueprint for the new president, the only reference to Africa is the recognition of Somaliland, a self-proclaimed Republic of Somalia.