The summer of 2024 was the sixth warmest of the current century and of the historical series (which dates back to 1991). It was, however, very humid: the sixth wettest of the century. These are the results of the analysis of the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET).
Rubén del Campo, spokesman for AEMET, explained on Tuesday that the feeling could have been that of a mild summer for many people. However, he explained, this is because it was a little less hot than the previous ones, but above all shorter. “Not all summers will be hotter than the previous ones, but the trend is quite clear. It was a very hot summer in which the average temperature of mainland Spain was 23.1 degrees, which is 1 degree above normal. The first time that these 23 degrees were exceeded in this historical series was in 2003, a summer considered tragic due to the number of deaths due to heat. But since 2015, these 23 degrees have already been exceeded five times.”
June was the first cold month in Spain since April 2022. In mid-July, intense heat set in, concentrated between mid-July and mid-August, the two hottest months since 1991.
There were two heat waves throughout the year. One of them lasted three days and another, from July 23 to August 12, which is already considered the second longest heat wave in our historical series.
Everything indicates that once the year is over, it will become the second warmest in the series, especially because of the winter, which was warmer than usual. “The warmest years in the historical series in recent times are accumulating,” the spokesman said. “If there were no climate change, we would expect five records per year for hot days and another five for cold days. What we see is that it has exploded: we have 25 records for hot days, five times more than what would happen if we were not in this climate change situation, and no record for cold days has been broken,” they explained. of the Agency.
A very humid summer
The summer as a whole was very wet in terms of precipitation, with an average value of precipitation on the Spanish peninsula of 82.2 mm. It is the sixth wettest summer of the 21st century and the twenty-third in the series.
Until September 17, 640 L/square meter have been collected in Spain. It is a normal hydrological year: neither dry nor rainy. However, there are notable differences between territories and in terms of distribution.
“There is a wet Spain and a dry Spain, but this year it has been more evident than usual, it has been pushed to the extreme,” explains the Agency. “There are areas in the west of the Galician community where more than 2,500 litres per square metre have fallen, and that is a lot even for Galicia, and there are areas in the extreme southeast of the peninsula where it has barely reached 80 litres per square metre, and that is very little, even in these very arid areas.
The distribution of precipitation, in addition to spatial, was also irregular in time: June was very wet, July very dry and August wet.
The drought persists in the far east of the peninsula and in the archipelagos and we have not yet recovered from the “long-term” drought, which began in 2022.
A warmer autumn than usual
Autumn began on September 22 and is expected to last until December 20. The forecast, with a probability of between 60 and 70%, is for a meteorological autumn warmer than normal, “something that is no longer surprising.” “We have to go back to 2010 to find the last cold autumn in Spain. Since then, there has never been an autumn like this. They have been normal, warm or very warm,” said Del Campo.
The uncertainties regarding precipitation are very large and should be taken “with caution”, but with the available data, it is more likely that autumn will be less rainy than normal, especially in the west of the peninsula and in the Canary Islands. In the rest of the country, autumn is just as likely to be wetter than normal as it is drier.
In addition, this week begins the first high-impact storm of the season that Aemet has called Aitor. “Very intense winds will arrive in the northwest of the peninsula, with gusts that can exceed 80-90 km/h in places, especially in the mountains and coastal areas where there are very exposed points.” It will leave abundant rains, especially between Wednesday and Thursday, especially in the Galician community, and will extend to Castilla y León, the Cantabrian community, Extremadura and western Andalusia, leaving in its wake maritime storms. Except in the Mediterranean, the atmosphere will be “gloomy and autumnal” in the rest of the country.
In anticipation of the weekend, Aitor will retreat and give way to cold northwest winds that will remain established during the weekend. “We can already have the first frosts in some points, such as Soria and Valladolid.” Temperatures are expected to rise again after the weekend.
