Uncertainty and doubt. These are two weapons that Russia uses successfully to destabilize its European adversaries. In the Baltic, two submarine fiber optic cables, one connecting Sweden to Lithuania and the other between Finland and Germany, suffered cuts on Sunday morning, November 17 and Monday, November 18. Sabotage or coincidence? Investigations were opened, but six European countries – including France – did not wait to accuse the Russians of hybrid attacks on Tuesday. “unprecedented in its variety and scale” against NATO countries and the European Union (EU). the war “hybrid” It combines military and non-military actions: cyberattacks, disinformation, sabotage, package bombs, espionage and even electoral interference.
Cable failures are common, caused by ship anchors or ground movements. But their simultaneity and the area where they occurred immediately fueled suspicions. “No one believes that these cables were accidentally cut”German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said ahead of a meeting of EU defense ministers in Brussels, even raising a possible “sabotage”. “Our European security is not only threatened by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, but also by the hybrid war waged by malicious actors”stated the Finnish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Elina Valtonen, and her German counterpart, Annalena Baerbock.
More cautiously, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said it was too early to draw conclusions. He recalled that strategic infrastructure in the Baltic Sea had already been damaged, “as a result of malicious activity and inadvertent negligence”. Same caution as the Finnish Prime Minister, Petteri Orpo, who stated that he was not “It is not yet possible to say if this is an act of sabotage”. Sweden, like Finland, has opened an investigation.
“It no longer seems like a coincidence”
“It is very difficult to trace the origin of the attackers, deciphers Julien Nocetti, associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) and specialist in digital conflicts. We may have suspicions, clues, but very often we will not know what it is. »
In recent months there have been several incidents in the Baltic Sea. In September 2022, the two Nordstream gas pipelines, which link Russia with Germany, were damaged by an explosion, without anyone responsible having been identified. In October 2023, a gas pipeline and two communications cables were damaged between Finland and Estonia by the anchor of a Chinese container ship, according to the investigation, which did not establish whether the act was accidental or intentional.
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