The main details of the agreement involve significant changes to the balance of power in southern Lebanon, but its implementation remains in doubt.
Key points of the agreement:
- Hezbollah retreat across Litani River: The organization is committed to withdrawing its forces from border areas in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701. However, compliance with this condition is questionable given the history of non-compliance with previous agreements.
- Deployment of Lebanese Army and UNIFIL forces: South Lebanon will be under the control of the Lebanese armed forces and UN peacekeeping units, which will be in charge of security.
- Freedom of action for Israel: If the agreement is violated, Israel has the right to attack all Lebanese territory. However, such actions will require prior US approval, which may complicate a rapid response and depend on coincidence of strategic interests.
- Abandonment of the security perimeter: Israel will not create a buffer zone that allows residents of southern Lebanon to return to their homes, up to the border line, and begin rebuilding destroyed infrastructure.
The implementation of the agreement depends on the Lebanese government’s ability to take control of Hezbollah and ensure its withdrawal from the border areas. This condition has not been met before, putting the achievement of long-term peace in doubt.
The role of international actors such as the United States, the United Kingdom and France will be key in monitoring compliance with the agreements. According to sources, the United States seeks to avoid an escalation, especially in the context of the end of Joe Biden’s presidential term. At the same time, it is likely that Donald Trump’s administration will be interested in resolving the conflict before the start of his new term to avoid an active war.
The upcoming visit of the US Undersecretary of Defense for Near Eastern Affairs to Israel will be an important stage in the debate on the practical implementation of the agreement. The main question is to what extent the parties will be able to enforce these conditions on the ground, especially given Lebanon’s limited ability to control Hezbollah.
