He annus horribilis What does 2024 mean for Boeing is about to materialize on the stock market with the achievement of one of the most extraordinary milestones in the stock market life of the North American company. Never, until this year, had its capitalization been exceeded in such a sustained manner over time by that of its great European rival, Airbus.
The pan-European consortium not only managed to beat the American company in terms of stock market size, as it did in 2022, but it also managed to do so in a clear and forceful way, during 170 of almost 200 sessions that have passed so far this year. And all this is partly explained by the company’s poor stock market performance. Yankee.
Boeing is one of the 10 most bearish companies in the world S&P500 in 2024 by leaving more than 40% of its value on the stock market and analysts are aware of this. In fact, it went from being one of the stocks that no analysts were advising to sell in January, to almost 10% of experts doing so now. A trend which was also complemented by the substantial decrease in the number of experts who advised taking a position on the subject, which It went from 26 to 20 in just 10 months.
Due to the safety problems of the North American manufacturer (we learned at the beginning of the year that the United States was grounding all the country’s Boeing 737 MAXs after the explosion of one of the planes in mid-flight), the strike of the company’s workers is now” added, who are standing up for the first time in 16 years by refusing a 25% salary increase in four years. An event that the market assumes with fear since the previous one (dated 2008) had a continuation of more than 50 days which paralyzed production and cost Boeing around 100 million dollars per day, according to American media like the WSJ and the FT. .
The actions of Airbusfor their part, lost barely 8% on the stock market and benefited more from the support of the market consensus. Indeed, although they see growth in their shares similar to that of the North American company – almost 30% for the next twelve months – the percentage of analysts who now consider Airbus shares to be more attractive than that of its competitor in the sector has just 76%.
It’s knowing how to better weather the market storm. “The persistence of problems in the supply chain, highlighted by profit warning June during which he reviewed advice deliveries of -4%, ended up truncating the takeoff of the value”, explain analysts at Banco Sabadell, but they believe that “a lot of good news has gone unnoticed on the demand side and the consolidation of its position on the world market. “duopoly of commercial aviation”.
The Catalan entity places particular emphasis on “the delivery data for July and August, which are again positive, and compared to the same period of 2023, they increase by 6%, an improvement which, if maintained until ‘in December, would guarantee the achievement of the objectives. “Therefore, after the evil performance recently, we think that the value has a strong upward trend when the accelerate production allows an order book to crystallize at historic highsvery resilient in the face of strong demand and its consolidated dominant position on the A320, which will allow Airbus to double its cash generation from 2026″, they say.
And they have the same opinion from Citi, where they agree that “the full-year delivery target for the 770 remains achievable” despite the recently announced reduction in deliveries. “We think there is a reasonable chance that Airbus will reduce its full-year guidance to 750-760 in its third-quarter results on October 30. but this change makes virtually no difference to the long-term value of your shares“, they emphasize. In other words, once the market looks beyond the short-term downside risk, they believe that the shares of the European company will appreciate, which is why they reiterate the buy recommendation that they give him.
