The American budget records excess in June … Was there a policy of introducing a fee?
The income from customs duties of the United States for the first time exceeded $ 100 billion, since President Donald Trump joined in April last year, customs duties for many commercial partners, according to the US Treasury, reached 300 billion dollars at the end of this year.
The state budget recorded a sudden excess of $ 27 billion in June with a noticeable converting deficit of $ 71 billion in the same month of 2024.
Nevertheless, the US state budget deficit in the period from October to June increased compared to the same period last year, despite the high income of customs duties; According to documents published by the Ministry of Finance on Friday evening.
In the first nine months of the American financial year, the deficit increased by $ 64 billion, reaching $ 1,400 trillion compared to just over 1300 trillion dollars a year ago, which is 6 percent, according to the treasury.
This partially growing deficit is associated with high expenses, especially on two health care programs for pensioners and people with a low income. Other factors are the high cost of American debt; The government pays more than 920 billion US dollars, which is a record number.
As for income, customs income increased from $ 61 billion a year ago to 113 billion dollars in the first three quarters of the current financial year.
This increase is explained by an increase in customs duties imposed on goods that are included in the United States, the average rate of which increased from 2.5 percent to the end of 2024 to 17.6 percent on July 1, 2025, according to the data published by Yale University.
During the office of the office last week, the Minister of Treasury Scott Demanent expected customs duties to bring an additional $ 300 billion by the end of the year.
According to the US Treasury, the income from customs duties grew to $ 27.2 billion in June ($ 26.6 billion after discounts), which shows the transition of these fees to a growing source of federal government revenues.
Within the first nine months of the financial year of 2025; The total customs revenue reached 113.3 billion dollars, and its clean $ 108 billion; That is, almost twice the levels of the previous year.
As a result, customs duties became the fourth largest source of federal income after the deductive income tax of individuals (2.683 trillion US dollars), unpopular income tax ($ 965 billion) and corporate taxes (392 billion US dollars). The percentage of customs duties from federal income doubled about 5 percent compared to two percent historically.
The treasury reported that the total income in June increased by 13 percent on an annual basis, or equivalently 60 billion dollars, reaching $ 526 billion, which is a record number per month. On the other hand, expenses decreased by 7 percent to $ 499 billion. According to the amendment to the assessment of payments, the budget could record the actual deficit of $ 70 billion.
Despite the monthly excess, the aggregate deficit over the financial year increased to 5 percent, reaching $ 1.337 trillion due to high health care, social security, defense and debt maintenance. The total revenue in the first nine months recorded from 7 to 4.008 trillion dollars, while expenses jumped 6 percent to 5.346 trillion dollars, both records.
The costs of US debt benefits increased to $ 921 billion, which is 6 percent (or $ 53 billion) compared to the same period in the previous year. Nevertheless, the official in the treasury indicated that the average interest rate, agreed by 3.3 percent in late June, with a slight increase for only two grounds.
Pesent expects large streams
The Secretary of the Treasury Scott Demanent said that income from customs duties can reach $ 300 billion by the end of 2025, unless fundamental changes in commercial policy occur. According to the fees of the fee in June, the total amount can reach $ 276.5 billion. USA in the next six months.
The dog explained that the estimates of the budget management in the Congress, which expected that the income of customs duties reached about $ 2.8 trillions over the next decade: “It looks conservative.”
As part of the escalation of customs policy, Trump began on August 1 to begin the use of “mutual fees” higher for most commercial partners, leaving the field open for negotiations with some countries.
During the current week, the president announced 50 percent training camps for copper and Brazilian goods and 35 percent of Canadian goods, in addition to discussing additional fees for sectors such as drugs and semiconductors.
Fees and markets
On Friday – the last trade of the week – became a witness to a wonderful decline with the escalation of President Donald Trump of his commercial attack on Canada, imposing high customs duties by 35 percent of his imports, which increased uncertainty regarding Washington’s commercial policy. This step occurred after raising previous customs tariffs with 25 percent, and Trump warns about the possibility of lifting them more if Canada takes measures of revenge.
Trump also again opened the door to introduce complex customs definitions in the range from 15 to 20 percent in other countries, compared with the current percentage of 10 percent. At the same time, Europe is preparing to receive an official message that may include new fees.
Trump expanded the scale of his introductory campaign; Include allies such as Japan and South Korea, with 50 percent fees charged to copper; Which led to an increase in trade tension.
Nevertheless, the market reaction was less volatile compared to a sharp wave of sales in the markets in April, after Trump announced comprehensive customs duties that were temporarily suspended.
In these circumstances, investors look at the next season of profit in the hope of creating a more clear image of the influence of these violations on the results of the company’s performance, with the beginning of the announcement of the results of large banks that JP Morgan will begin next week.
Next week, important economic data will be presented, which include inflation and retail sales at a time when the latest strong report on work on the work is reduced to reduce interest rates in July, and 60.6 -percent expectations in relation to possible reduction in September, according to the Fiduch index.