It is October 7, 2073.
Fifty years have passed since the terrible terrorist attacks perpetrated by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
The Middle East has long been a region marked by deep conflicts, geopolitical rivalries and shifting alliances. This half-century has remained unstable, but it has also experienced important transformations. Among them, the realization that the end of Fukuyama’s story was a false prediction. At least, as far as this part of the world is concerned.
Donald Trump with Mohamed bin Salman, in 2017.
The Arab countries surrounding Israel have not become liberal democracies. On the contrary, they have become two types of regimes.
On the one hand, Jordan, the State of Palestine and Saudi Arabia adopted the model of the United Arab Emirates and constituted poles of attraction for Western populations and capital, all linked by a strategic and economic alliance strong with Israel.
On the other hand, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, led by Iran, refused to accept this modus vivendi and continued to deal with internal political and ethnic conflicts, repression of opposition, backward economies and the constant pressure of Western sanctions.
While the Saudis, Jordanians, Emiratis and Palestinians enjoyed high levels of economic growth, political stability and peace, the Iranians, Syrians, Iraqis and Lebanese continued on the same path as during the last hundred years. recent years. Despite their battered economies and tyrannical or failing leadership, no political change has taken place.. An old lesson from the Middle East: what malfunctions can last a lifetime without needing to be modified or repaired.
After the elimination, expulsion and constant harassment of all Hamas members in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and everywhere on the planet where Israeli secret services were able to find them during the two years that followed the attacks of October 7, 2023, the President of the United States, Donald Trumpreactivated the Middle East peace plan drawn up by his son-in-law Jared Kushner.
The plan was to gradually create a Palestinian state, the bill and guarantee of which, both economically and in terms of security, would be paid and guaranteed by Saudi Arabia. Israelis, locked in immobile positions after the attacks of October 7, 2023 and the two years of incessant violence that followed, were reluctant. In fact, Trump was unable to attend the signing of the 2035 Jeddah Peace Accords. Bibi Netanyahuneither one nor the other.
“Iran has maintained a policy of resistance against Israeli and Saudi hegemony through its influence over non-state actors like Hamas and Hezbollah”
After the attacks of October 7, the war in Gaza and Lebanon and the distant military conflict between Israel and Iran, International public opinion as a whole predicted a century-long prolongation of the conflict. But it wasn’t like that.
For Israelis, despite their hostile position to the peace plan, it was the demographic growth of Israeli and Palestinian Arabs in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem that facilitated the independence of the State of Palestine in 2040.
From 2035 to 2040, the reality on the ground was a state, that of Israel, in coexistence with Palestinian autonomy which, little by little, gained independence. This slow transition was made possible by Saudi Arabia’s adherence to the Abraham Accords. and he was the guarantor of the Palestinians in their state project.
The great achievement of the last 50 years has been precisely the creation of the State of Palestine and its alignment with the Jordanians, the Emiratis and the Saudis.
Once the Palestinian state was established and entered the Arab-Israeli orbit, the United States successfully isolated China from the region. The great center of the geopolitical struggle has definitively shifted to the Asia-Pacific region. With the Middle East relatively peaceful and new energy routes under Saudi control, the region has ceased to be a center of significant rivalry between the great powers.
Although the Arab-Israeli bloc has achieved unprecedented stability and prosperity, tensions with the Iran-led bloc persist. For decades and until today, Iran has maintained a policy of active resistance against Israeli and Saudi hegemony, based on its influence over non-state actors such as Hamas and Hezbollah in Syria, in Iraq and Lebanon, which continue to be hotbeds. . conflict and violence in the region.
“The future of Israel currently depends on how it manages its relations with the ultra-Orthodox Jewish population and with the Arab population”
The growing reliance on new military technologies and cyberwarfare has defined the clashes between the two sides. Iran, aware of its economic and military limits compared to the alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Israel, has invested in cyberespionage; in the development of unconventional weapons, such as cyberviruses which have paralyzed bank transfer systems or drones; and in precision missiles, with which they destabilized Israel’s northern border and Saudi interests in their new sustainable megacities in the desert.
Despite this, the Arab-Israeli bloc’s ability to counter these attacks with advanced defense systems has reduced the strategic impact of this harassment.
Likewise, coexistence between Palestinians, Jordanians, Saudis and Israelis has not been easy. Today, its main controversy continues to revolve around natural resources, particularly water.
Constant disagreements over the management and distribution of Jordan water and shared aquifers generated conflicts and military skirmishes between Israel, Jordan and the State of Palestine, but Saudi mediation prevented a spiral of violence. As water scarcity worsens, these challenges may intensify in the future.
On the other hand, Israel’s domestic politics also continued to evolve. The unstoppable population growth of ultra-Orthodox Jews and Israeli Arabs poses a real existential challenge.
Although the State of Palestine and its growing economic cooperation with Israel have contributed to a period of peace, internal tensions within Israel could destabilize the balance achieved over the past fifty years. Israel’s future currently depends on how it manages its relations with the ultra-Orthodox Jewish population and with the Arab population. And, in doing so, continue to be a democratic and plural State.
In short, October 7, 2073 marks the beginning of a gradual transformation in the Middle East. The future of the region has not been the best, but The future is much brighter than we predicted in 2024..
*** Elías Cohen is a lawyer and professor of international relations at the Francisco de Vitoria University.
