Moscow has used many tricks and stratagems to “smuggle” its oil and gas across half the world, avoiding sanctions. This fight between Russia and the West which is a bit reminiscent of the game of cat and mouse. Every time it seems that the cat (the West) is going to catch the mouse (Russia and its Ghost Fleet), the mouse comes up with a new plot twist that surprises a cat who must redirect his pursuit in an attempt to catch his prey. Just when it seemed that Moscow had run out of ideas and the United States and its allies had signed and sanctioned the most active ships of the Ghost Fleet, new and original plans emerged to make Russian oil activity even more opaque and difficult to control. trace.
At first glance, an apartment located about 150 kilometers southeast of the Indian city of Bombay It looks like an ordinary family home. A weathered, peeling wall, with a child’s bicycle leaning against the doorway, gives it away. But behind the seemingly innocent façade lies a crucial cog in Russia’s complex efforts to avoid U.S. sanctions on its energy industry.
Since June of this year, this modest house is the registered address of Ocean Speedstar Solutionsa company that supports Russia’s ghost fleet of tankers that export liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the iconic Arctic LNG 2 plant. Even though these operations have been subject to international sanctions, Russia continues to find creative ways to keep its gas flowing to global markets.
The story of the apartment in question involves Nikhil Ganesh Ghorpade, photojournalist who claims to have no prior links with the energy sector, as explained in statements to Bloomberg. He said a friend convinced him to use his name and address as a representative of the company, without knowing his role in the international network. Ghorpade is now listed in the Indian registry as the sole director of Ocean Speedstar Solutions, which has become a key link in a complex system linking Russia, India, China and Dubai.
A network to avoid sanctions
He Arctic LNG 2 Projectconsidered as a pillar of Russian national pridehas faced serious obstacles since the West imposed sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to let those restrictions stop the country’s natural gas trade, especially now that Russia has lost Europe as a major customer.
Moscow has high hopes for the facility, Russia’s largest gas plant, which could produce up to 20 million tonnes of fuel per yearLarge-scale construction began in 2019 with the aim of capturing a larger market share in Asia, where demand is expected to grow by 40% through 2030. Russia aims to control 20% of the global market by the end of the decade, up from just 8% last year.
In this context, Russia has woven a complex whole network of companies and individuals willing to act as intermediariesand Ocean Speedstar Solutions is just one of many pieces of this puzzle. To keep its energy infrastructure running, Moscow has resorted to tactics such as location spoofing and creating ghost fleets, all in an effort to circumvent international oversight mechanisms.
Analyst Kjell Eikland describes it this way: a strategy to “complicate, confuse and delay”. While Russia organizes all the logistics and gas sales, it looks for people willing to lend their names and addresses to register companies, often finding individuals in need of money.
“Russia has been building a small fleet of conventional LNG carriers since the beginning of this year, focusing on older units on the second-hand market. The vessels do not have ice-class specifications, but can load directly in ice-free waters during the summer months from July to October,” Fraser Carson, senior analyst for global liquefied natural gas (LNG) research at Wood Mackenzie, said in a report.
Efforts to build a parallel fleet began in earnest in March 2024. Dubai-based Nur Global Shipping purchased several old LNG carriers that would otherwise have been sent to the scrapyard. Nur has attracted the attention of LNG traders by paying more than $50 million each for some of the vessels, an unusually high premium for ships that are so old and don’t meet the latest environmental standards, say the traders and shipbrokers, who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak to the media. The address Nur used is the Meydan Hotel, located in a Dubai free zone that has previously been criticized by the United States and some local officials for its lack of transparency.
Economic and geopolitical consequences
Despite the risks, the Russian government is determined to triple its LNG exports by 2030making it a key part of Russia’s post-conflict economy. Putin himself stressed in a recent speech that projects like Arctic LNG 2 are not only crucial for the Russian economy, but will also help consolidate its position in the global LNG market.
But the sanctions-avoidance network is far from perfect. As winter approaches, the window for ships to traverse the frozen Arctic waters is narrowing, and it is unclear whether Russia will find enough buyers willing to risk violating U.S. sanctions. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration is keeping a close eye on these maneuvers. Geoffrey Pyatt, the top energy official at the U.S. State Department, has said they will do everything they can to thwart Russian attempts to evade sanctions and maintain their energy revenues.
Putin’s success or failure will depend a market where LNG supply is expected to increase. According to the latest Bank of America (BofA) forecast, LNG supply growth in 2024 is expected to be the weakest in nearly a decade, with a year-on-year increase of 3 million to 4 million tonnes, due to supply disruptions from Freeport LNG, exports from the Middle East and North Africa and the start-up of projects in the second half of the year. At the same time, strong summer cooling demand in Asia will offset weak European imports.
In 2025, the report continues, LNG supply is expected to increase by 26 million tonnes, driven by Plaquemines, CC3 and LNG Canada, while the disruption to Russian gas flows this winter is expected to boost European LNG demand, with East Asia absorbing the remainder. Supply growth is expected to reach 28 million tonnes in 2026 with the launch of Golden Pass, Plaquemines 2 and Qatar NF East. Nearly 55 million tonnes of LNG supplied over two years risks loosening balances in 2026, unless weather conditions push consumption above normal.
India’s importance in the network
India’s role in the escape network has drawn criticism. Although the country does not recognize unilateral sanctions, its apparent involvement in the operations could complicate its diplomatic relations with the United States and other Western allies. The Indian Embassy did not respond to requests for comment on the role of Indian companies in the project. Meanwhile, in the small apartment in southeast Mumbai, Nikhil Ganesh Ghorpade continues to live a reality that is far removed from the public image of Ocean Speedstar Solutions, now caught at the center of a complex geopolitical conspiracy.
Although in this case he focuses more on oil, one of the most combative analysts in the face of Moscow’s shrewd maneuvers, Robin Brooks, director general of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), considers the case of India to be particularly heartbreaking: “India has become a huge Russian oil refinery. It would be nice if Russian oil were coming to India on Western ships operating under the G7 cap (the West-imposed measure to cap Russian crude at $60 a barrel that has repeatedly failed), but much of that oil is being shipped on Putin’s ghost fleet, which means India is helping to fund Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “This has to end.”
