Russia closely follows the political situation in the United States. The possibility of a dialogue between Kyiv and Moscow may depend on its results. However, it is not only the outcome of the electoral process that may determine the possibilities of such negotiations.
CNN writes about this.
If Kamala Harris wins, she will likely continue the course of the Biden administration, which has supported Ukraine despite some controversies, such as the use of Western weapons to attack Russian territory. By contrast, Donald Trump promised to suspend military aid to kyiv and said he could resolve the conflict “in one day.” His peace plan, proposed by Vice President JD Vance, is remarkably similar to Putin’s demands.
Analysts say U.S. policy is at a crossroads, but that won’t necessarily lead to changes in peace talks. According to them, there are no signs that Russia is ready for negotiations, regardless of who takes over the US presidency.
“It is currently unclear what exactly Trump plans to do and what influence he has. But I don’t expect rapid progress,” said Thomas Graham, a Russian foreign policy expert.
However, experts believe that a reduction in American aid could affect the situation on the front. Graham added that Putin will try to use any signs of political instability in the United States and “dissension in the ranks of the West” to his advantage.
These divisions could manifest themselves in the form of reduced US aid to Ukraine under the Trump administration, reduced participation in NATO, or a split in Congress. Financial difficulties among European allies and internal divisions within NATO, especially between countries with pro-Russian leaders such as Hungary and Slovakia, also play a major role.
“In the absence of Western unity and a clear strategy of what the West and Ukraine are trying to achieve…Putin has no reason to change his actions in Ukraine,” Graham added.
Experts argue that the scale of the conflict is too large for a simple dialogue between Moscow and kyiv; This is a much more serious fight between Russia and the West. For Putin, Ukraine is simply a tool to limit American influence internationally, said Chatham House’s John Lowe.
“When Trump’s advisers explain the real situation to him, including China’s importance in supporting Russia in the war, he may reconsider his views on Putin,” Low concluded, adding that any concession would be perceived by Beijing as a signal. of American weakness, despite Trump’s harsh rhetoric about the Chinese threat.
Recall that Kursor wrote that the possibility of supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles for attacks against Russia is being actively discussed after this confidential information, known only to officials in kyiv and Washington, was “leaked” into public space.
