July 9 – Independence Day in Argentina, but for investors this is a key date for another reason. On that day, bonars and global bonds will pay half -year income and capital payments. With this stream in the hands, a new window opens to evaluate the possibilities and reinvest in tools that reflect the improvement of Argentine risk. The city is considering alternatives to maintain influence.
On Tuesday, the government will face a key obligation: payment of about $ 42 billion for private bonds. This payment, which is one of the most important deadlines for the repayment of the year, arrives in the context of high sensitivity for markets, where any fiscal or signal of obligations in reserves can include more anxiety.
It should be remembered that the referents of the economic team -their Minister of Economy Luis Caputo stand; The Minister of Finance, Pablo Kuyrno and adviser Felip Nunesatiza that the treasury had the necessary dollars to encounter the expiration of the validity without shocks.
The message was transmitted at conferences, interviews and social networks, trying to dispel doubts and send a sign of commitment to the macroeconomic order.
With such confidence payment, already in consciousness, analysts raise where these funds can enter, which will dispel the treasures and analyze the best investment opportunities.
Tools for all profiles
“For profiles that feel comfortable with sovereign risk and put a bet on compression of spreads or improving prices by the end of the year, we remain positive in names such as Global 2041 (GD41) or Bonar 2030 (AL30),” he says in statements for the chronicle of the product Isabelle in Balanz Capital.
He warns that these are bonds that still appear up the route to the extent that the economy stabilizes, and the country continues. “If it corresponds to a macroeconomic scenario, they can capture the value in the remaining part of the year,” says Botta.
Sergio Gonzalez, the head of the asset management in Cohen, comments, for his part, that this is a reality, that most of the local market has these tools in their portfolios. So, the key question: “What to do with these coupons?” For a strategist, the collection will generate an interesting stream and slides that there are good prospects in the “dollarized segment”.
“For the most conservative investors, for example, Bopreal 1.3 – which expires in 2026 – it already seems to us that it gives very little about Argentine risk. In this more conservative profile today we see a series of 1C and 1D, which pay about 7.3%. For two years, it seems, an attractive bet, ”says Gonzalez.
Meanwhile, Botta recommends for conservative profiles that priorities in dollars with less volatility can find attractive opportunities in the agreed obligations, such as telecommunications (TLCPO) or Energy View (VSCVO). “These are solid companies with tariffs today above 8% per year,” he adds.
The expert analyzes that for those who are looking for diversification outside Argentina, they can consider the Balanz Latam Foundation, which invests in the countries of Mercosur Más Chile. “With an assessment of performance exceeding 6% in annual to current values, this allows you to expand the regional exposition in solid currency,” he says.
The most risky profiles
Gonzalez believes that for the most risky profiles there is an opportunity in sovereign bonds in dollars. “The government’s decision to intervene in a single and free market (Mulc) -s with purchases in a large foreign foreign currency -is referred by a sincere path to treasures to earn dollars to repaint the debt,” he will say.
“Of course, this can have consequences for a non -inflationary program, but it can still be seen. The truth is that from the point of view of debt, this is a sign of pragmatism, which helps to reduce the risk of the country, ”he explains.
Within the framework of this structure, it remains positive with bonds that expire in 2035, such as GD35 and AL35. “There is a place to compress spreads, so they are a good alternative to those who want to take a chance in dollars,” says Gonzalez.
And also, for investors who evaluate corporate alternatives and taking into account the current context: “For credit quality, we prefer to use bonds of high -quality emitters, such as YPF and Pampa Energía. These are companies with solid remnants and good repayment opportunities, ”he says.
Finally, Botta concludes that for those who need liquidity in the short term, the short -term Balanz Fludo fund is an effective alternative. “With an approximate duration of six months and estimated performance above 5% per year, it is located in high-quality credit and T-Bills (US Treasury bonds), which allows you to keep dollars in motion without sacrificing safety.”
Finally, from Facimex Securities, they wrote in this regard that portfolios with a fixed income with a solid dollar should be biased to public credit, “although with sovereigns to the provinces.”
“In our portfolios in dollars with fixed income, we made some recent adjustments: we reduced exposure to sovereign bonds, from 50% to 40% of the portfolio in order to increase the participation of provincial bonds that were reduced from 30% to 40%,” the report said.
“While we see great potential in sovereigns, in particular, in the context, when Argentina moves in the compression of country risk and when paying coupons and depreciations of July as a short -term catalyst, we determine the attractive opportunities in the provincial duty of high quality, which justified the rebound,” he puts it out.
For analysts who charge a fee for dollars, they will strive to reinvesting tools also in hard currency. And today these are options that they consider the most reasonable in accordance with the profile of the investor. In all cases, the key is to make decisions corresponding to the goals of each portfolio. There are options for all needs, but it is important that these funds received do not lose their value.
