The internal political stability in Armenia is increasingly disturbed. In fact, it was expected. The growing tension within the country is largely related to the course of the country’s foreign policy. Thus, under the guise of Yerevan’s official balanced foreign policy course, it is actually losing its independence and remaining between the West and Russia.
No matter how hard Armenia tries to break away from Russia’s influence under pressure from Western countries, especially France, it fails. Thus, today Armenia has become a political training ground between the two parties. This in itself is a serious threat not only to the Armenian government, but also to the state as a whole.
On September 18, as a result of operational search measures by the National Security Service of Armenia, an attempt to seize power in the country by force was prevented. The Investigative Committee of Armenia reported on this.
It was reported that a criminal group of 7 people, including two people who arrived in Armenia from Karabakh, prepared a plan to overthrow the country’s government by force of arms: “During the investigations, it was established that each of these people was paid 220,000 rubles per month for 90 days for the execution of that illegal act. It was agreed that they should undergo training in Russia, as well as disseminate the knowledge and skills acquired during the training among certain people in this country who are fluent in the secrets of using weapons and military equipment.”
The investigation also established that some of these people later refused to carry out the task of staging a coup in Armenia, and three people were arrested during a special law enforcement operation.
It was also announced that a search for 4 committee members was announced.
In fact, such an attempt is not so surprising. It should be noted that official Yerevan for many years was an outpost of Moscow. After Nikol Pashinyan came to power in Armenia in 2018, serious changes appeared in the country’s foreign policy course. Armenia, which once hid “under the umbrella” of Russia, began to distance itself from its former patron with the 3T principle of the West: influence, pressure and incitement. Today Armenia is raising the question of withdrawing from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Armenia is actually a weak player. That is why there is competition between the West and Russia on this issue. Both sides are trying to strengthen their “influence” in the region through the actor they can influence in the South Caucasus, namely official Yerevan.
Armenia’s attempts to distance itself from Russia have not worried the Kremlin. Because Russia is an imperialist state and now does not want to accept attempts by a weak player like Armenia to challenge it. In this regard, it is possible that the Kremlin will slip out of Pashinyan’s hands and even “break his pen” in the future.
Armenia’s measures against Russia are not in line with reality. Because, no matter how hard Yerevan tries to escape from Moscow’s influence, the latter actually has the “sword of Domocles” over the former: Armenia is heavily economically dependent on Russia. In addition, Armenia has the 102nd Russian military base. In perspective, it is not at all an exception for such soldiers to take some action against the government. Although it is not necessary. There are quite a few Russian henchmen in Armenia. Any attempt on N. Pashinyan’s life and power is not so easy for Russia.
Despite this, we must also say that the West still needs the Armenian prime minister. Therefore, France and the United States are trying to ensure his security and protect their power.
The information circulated about yesterday’s coup attempt indicates that the perpetrators received special training in Russia. The Moscow official has not yet commented on this issue. It is possible that the process is just a farce and is Armenia’s next step to distance itself from Russia. It should be noted that a large part of Armenian society is pro-Russian and opposes the current government policy. Therefore, perhaps, the government wants to influence public opinion in this way.
However, it is possible that what has been said is true and that Russia has already decided to “break Pashinyan’s pen”. If so, the tension between the parties may increase and reach its peak in the future.
This means that Armenia, which is currently a political training ground between the West and Russia, may experience the fate of Ukraine and become a military training ground in the future.
By the way, let us recall that N. Pashinyan said during his speech at the II Armenian World Summit on September 18 that there is no country or military bloc in the world that can guarantee Armenia’s security: “If peace is guaranteed in the region, Armenia’s security can be guaranteed by itself, because if we talk about security guarantees, then there is only one security guarantee – peace. The policy of our government created this guarantee, realizing how difficult it is.
During his speech at the summit he also spoke about normalising relations with Türkiye.
This once again shows that the current Armenian government does not trust either the West or Russia and is looking for a new “security umbrella”.
Interestingly, on the same day one of the Russian hacker groups claimed to have infiltrated the database of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan via FTP transmission system. The hackers demanded that the government transfer $2.5 million to their account. Otherwise, the database will be destroyed within the next 48 hours.
It should be noted that in June this year, the attack on the official websites of the President, Prime Minister and law enforcement agencies of Armenia was most likely organized by such a group of hackers.
This once again suggests that it is not difficult for Russia to intervene not only in Armenia’s information space, but also at the very origin of the government apparatus.
It is possible that the above-mentioned issue was also a message from Russia to Armenia, perhaps a threat.
So far, Russia has reacted to the incident through the media. The pro-government publication Nezavisimiya Gazeta, commenting on the coup attempt in Armenia, assessed it especially in the context of relations between that country and the CSTO. It stated that after this incident, more serious measures could be taken to distance Armenia from the organization.
All this is a sign that internal political tensions in Armenia will increase in the near future. The growth of Western finances and the growth of various agencies and organizations are also a sign of this.
Information Agency “Report”
