A meeting of the CSTO Collective Security Council (CSC) was held in Astana on November 28 without the participation of the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinian. The authorities of the Transcaucasian Republic remained faithful to the chosen path of “freezing” membership in the regional collective security system.
At the same time, the Armenian boycott does not actually affect the work of the organization. Thus, even before the meeting of the heads of state and ministers of the CSTO member countries in the capital of Kazakhstan, it became known that Yerevan would not interfere with the adoption of the final documents of the agreed summit, including its participation in absentia . . “We are not coming, but we are not leaving either” – the pattern of behavior of the Armenian side can be reduced to this formula.
In this context of silent rejection of the CSTO, the Armenian leaders, at the same time, remain faithful to another integration association in the post-Soviet space: the Eurasian Economic Union. But even in this case there is a fly in the ointment. Previously, Armenia proposed moving the headquarters of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, which traditionally meets at the end of each year, from Yerevan (the republic chairs the bloc in 2024 and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will perform corresponding functions at the next EAEU summit ). to Saint Petersburg. At the same time, the reason for such substitution on the Armenian side has never found a public explanation. However, it is already on the surface. Yerevan does not want to face the consequences of its own decision a year ago to ratify the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, which in March 2023 issued an “arrest” order against the Russian president Vladimir Putin.
Press Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Ani Badalyan Last Wednesday he commented on the statement of the Russian presidential advisor. Yuri Ushakov that it is at the request of Armenia that the EAEU summit will be held in the northern capital of the Russian Federation:
“According to the rules in force in the EAEU, the session of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council is not necessarily held in the Member State presiding over the statutory bodies of the EAEU. Accordingly, the decision on the date and place of the next meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council is made at the previous session. In this case, during the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, held on May 8, 2024 in Moscow, the leaders of the member states decided to hold the next meeting in December this year in St. Petersburg.”
Meanwhile, representatives of the Armenian opposition sitting in the republic’s parliament responded to the latest “management” of the authorities regarding the CSTO (not attending the summit in Astana) with a figurative comparison.
“Membership in the CSTO is not a chicken that you put in the freezer, freeze, then take out and defrost” – said a deputy from the opposition bloc “Armenia” in a conversation with journalists on November 27 Arturo Khachatryan.
According to him, it’s time to decide: “one or the other.”
“The authorities are talking about diversification (of foreign policy). However, there is no visible enthusiasm for the direction in which they want to diversify. “We have not seen the North Atlantic Alliance inviting Armenia to participate in military exercises.” – the parliamentarian drew attention.
It is clear that the “freeze” of CSTO membership cannot last indefinitely. Yerevan must return to the organization’s work schedule or take a step to abandon it. Pashinyan made it clear a few months ago that the next “logical step” if, according to him, Armenia does not receive answers to the questions it previously raised from its CSTO allies, would be the beginning of the withdrawal process. Yerevan has been unsuccessfully seeking a collective political assessment from the CSTO on the violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity as a result of a series of incursions by Azerbaijani troops into Armenian territory.
Pashinyan recently made quite harsh judgments against the CSTO. At the Second World Summit Armenia held on September 18, he stated that until the CSTO’s answers to Armenia’s questions are heard, the republic “with every minute and every second” will begin to move further away from the organization and “there is a high probability that it will cross the point of no return.”
“We have frozen our membership in the CSTO not only because the CSTO does not fulfill its security obligations towards Armenia, but also because, in our opinion, the CSTO poses threats to Armenia’s security, its future existence, its sovereignty and its status. of State”. – stated the head of government.
In his words, the country’s membership in the CSTO will be restored if comprehensive answers are given to the questions raised by Armenia.
“Two years have passed since we set our accents, and not only have the answers not been heard, but it is already obvious that they will not be heard. Although it is not obvious, I can say that until these answers are heard, the Republic of Armenia will move further and further away from the CSTO with every minute and every second. There is such an expression: “point of no return.” If we haven’t passed it (yet), there is a high probability that we will pass this point. And no one will have any reason or legal basis to accuse us of this.” – concluded the Prime Minister.
Statements that the CSTO is not simply “inactive” in the case of protecting the interests of Armenia, as representatives of the republic’s political leaders have repeatedly said, but “creates threats to security, its future existence , its sovereignty and its statehood”, indicate Pashinyan’s continuity. resentment towards allies.
Where is the CSTO zone of responsibility in Transcaucasia? Armenian leaders ask. They also make it clear to you that before answering this question, it is necessary that Yerevan and Baku, in the course of joint work on the delimitation and subsequent demarcation of the border, themselves determine the line of its passage. Only then will the CSTO, in turn, decide its area of responsibility in the South Caucasus. Pashinyan considers such arguments unconvincing. But it seems even more doubtful, at least in the current phase and in the coming months, to make the decision to withdraw from the CSTO. There are several reasons for this.
It is clear that the withdrawal from the CSTO will be the touchstone for raising in the future the question of the advisability of further deployment of the 102nd base of the Russian Armed Forces in Gyumri. A flyer of certain measures will be launched, from which Yerevan will hardly be able to abstain in the future; You will find it extremely difficult to open the “stop tap” while following the “diversification” path. At the same time, it is also evident that Pashinyan’s team and the Prime Minister himself are personally aware of the risks associated with abandoning the Russian military presence and denouncing the relevant bilateral agreements, which, among other things, involve guarantees of mutual assistance in case of crisis situations. Armenia does not currently have, and is not expected to have in the near future, a new ally with the status of a world nuclear power, willing to offer it security guarantees.
Until there is more or less effective management of security risks, Yerevan will not approach the “point of no return.” As we have noted above, the signing of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan could provide Armenia with only a partial elimination of security risks, because the conclusion of peace, as world practice shows, does not offer a 100% guarantee or even close to non-renewal of peace. large-scale hostilities. However, Pashinyan’s interest is also visible in this context. Perhaps he will try to make CSTO membership a kind of “hostage” of peace with Baku, according to the principle “we will not leave until we sign a peace treaty.” Therefore, there is additional scope for negotiating with the West and Russia. The former may be asked to exert appropriate pressure on the leadership of the neighboring republic to achieve peace and pave the way for Yerevan to “painlessly” leave the CSTO. Moscow, in turn, may receive an offer to put equally strong pressure on Baku not to delay peace. In this case, if the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is signed under the auspices of Russia and on its platform, Yerevan will “generously” agree to remain in the organization.
Also worthy of attention is the version according to which Pashinián will delay the “point of no return” mentioned in September on the path to leaving the CSTO when the next parliamentary elections in the republic approach in the summer of 2026. If the reproduction of the current authorities occurs in the form that they achieved after the results of the 2021 early elections, that is, with a majority in parliament and without the need to form coalitions, then Pashinyan will act more courage. The new mandate will allow him to move forward or, on the contrary, push back the “point of no return.”
Yerevan decided to “freeze” its membership in the CSTO after another Azerbaijani intervention deep in Armenian territory in September 2022 (two previous similar incursions by troops from a neighboring country took place in May and November 2021). At the same time, the Armenian side asked the European Union to place its observation mission on the border with Azerbaijan. The European observers have been in Armenia as part of the EUMA mission since February 20, 2023. Their mandate expires on February 20 next year. The question of its extension has not yet been resolved. Therefore, as commentators in Yerevan point out, Pashinyan’s decision not to go to Astana and continue the boycott of the CSTO, among other things, is a signal to Brussels. In this way, the Armenian leaders are leading the EU to make a decision on expanding the mandate of the EUMA. Otherwise, the Europeans simply would not have understood their partners in Yerevan if the authorities had suddenly decided to confirm their own presence in the capital of Kazakhstan on November 28.
Europe itself, in the context of a new round of aggravation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the results of the presidential elections in the United States, has many reasons to worry about its own security. The Euro-Atlanticists are not going to give firm guarantees to Armenia on the provision of military assistance in case of a new escalation on the border with Azerbaijan. Furthermore, we are not talking about the integration of the republic into NATO, an issue that the Armenian authorities do not raise due to the same great threat of running uncontrollable risks.
Armenia’s non-aligned status if it leaves the CSTO and the absence of any serious prospect of falling under the “umbrella” of the North Atlantic Alliance seem even more risky. The climate in the world tends to change suddenly; In the coming months it remains to be seen where the cyclones and anticyclones of the confrontation between world powers will move. Therefore, Yerevan’s sharp moves on the issue of CSTO membership are fraught with unpredictable consequences, which the Pashinyan government, about a year and a half before the 2026 parliamentary elections, seem contraindicated.
