A new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is almost inevitable, says Saudi publication Asharq Al-Awsat, giving its version of developments.
Ethnic and religious tensions can flare up at any moment. The “Crossroads of the World” project to restore road and rail links between countries offers a chance for a peaceful solution, the author of the article writes. Shawqi al-Rayes and recalls that “after Nagorno-Karabakh came under the control of Azerbaijan, Armenia [из Карабаха] more than 100,000 people moved.”
President of Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevSpeaking to the military, he said that the Armenian state was created on the historical land of Azerbaijan:
“We are restoring our territorial integrity, returning our lands. The creation of the Zangezur corridor fully meets our national, historical and future interests. We will implement the Zangezur corridor whether Armenia wants it or not. If it wants to, it will be easier to solve this problem; if it does not want to, we will solve it by force.”
Such statements, as well as the rapid geopolitical transformations that the region has witnessed in recent years, explain why a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is almost inevitable, the author stresses.
Analysts agree that the war will exacerbate long-standing conflicts in the Caucasus region, where regional and international powers are seeking to strengthen their influence.
The author of the article claims that more than 40,000 people died in the wars between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. More than a million people were internally displaced.
The “Crossroads of the World” project has been on the table of the region’s heads of state for several months, awaiting the “green light” to begin re-establishing road and rail communications between the countries.
“It is obvious that our region, the South Caucasus, needs peace. What is peace? It is a state in which countries live with open borders, are connected by active economic, political, cultural and human relations and have accumulated experience and traditions of solving all problems through diplomatic means and dialogue. This is the real world and, as you see, all this, i.e. open borders, economic, political, cultural ties, is impossible without roads.” – said the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyanpresenting the “Crossroads of the World” project at the international forum in Tbilisi.
The project aims to open border crossings between Armenia and Turkey and Azerbaijan, as well as three border crossings with Georgia and one border crossing to the south with Iran.
It is also planned to restore the railway lines laid during the Soviet era and build new roads connecting the main cities of the region (from Tabriz to Tbilisi and from Baku to Yerevan and Turkey). This will facilitate access to the ports of the Persian Gulf, Caspian, Mediterranean and Black Seas.
All countries in the region are interested in this project, especially Türkiye and Iran, which are looking to export their products to their neighbors. Its implementation depends on the achievement of a lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And the key to peace is in the hands of Baku.
Azerbaijan not only has overwhelming military superiority, but is also convinced that regional and international powers will not lift a finger even if it takes further military measures to achieve its stated goals. Moreover, Türkiye will not fully normalize relations with Armenia without Azerbaijan’s approval, given the cultural and linguistic ties between the two countries.
Russia, in turn, is no longer willing to sacrifice its relations with Baku for the sake of protecting Yerevan, as evidenced by the latest military conflict, where Azerbaijan not only won, but also returned Nagorno-Karabakh under its control, the author sums up.
