Turkey has taken an unexpected step that could represent a milestone in the global geopolitical situation, due to the importance of the country, located at a geographical crossroads that unites the East and the West. The government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has reportedly officially requested to join the BRICS, the group of countries led by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, which represents the rival bloc of the West, NATO and, in general, the so-called developed countries that are in the American orbit. Turkey’s request is part of a project to become the link between the Western bloc and its Eastern adversary.led by China and India mainly, but it distances the Turkish country, an official member of NATO, from this orbit of influence, with the implications that this can have. BRICS summit to be held in Russia at end of October and everything indicates that the entry of Turkey will then be discussed, which now joins a long list of countries, such as Indonesia, Thailand or Vietnam, among others, that have approached the BRICS with the intention of joining their ranks. China, which has the potential to become the world’s leading economy in the coming years, needs the support of new partners to be able to face the enormous challenge it faces.
Turkey’s history as a friendly country to the whole world did not begin with the application to join the BRICS group. As disclosed to the agency BloombergThe country has reportedly made a formal request to join the China-led group of countries, but the Eurasian country’s rapprochement with NATO’s rival bloc did not begin with that move. In recent years, Turkey has expressed interest in joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), NATO’s rival group that China and Russia created in 2001. At a time when the country is going through a major currency crisis, among other things, the Turkish government appears to be looking for new partners on all fronts to strengthen its diplomatic position.
Erdogan’s idea is to make Turkey a link between East and West, and to manage to maintain good relations with all parties equally, a titanic task that seems less and less feasible, if the evolution of geopolitical events in recent years is anything to go by. “Turkey can become a strong, prosperous, prestigious and efficient country if it simultaneously improves its relations with the East and the West,” Erdogan said this weekend in Istanbul. However, the same sources who leaked the official application for BRICS membership point out how The main reason is the frustration the Turkish government feels after decades of unsuccessful attempts to join the European Union.
The BRICS organization itself was created as an alternative to the Western bloc, led by the United States, which has tools such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the World Bank, a real rivalry that Erdogan seems to want to minimize. “We do not have to choose between the European Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as many say,” the Turkish president has said in the past. His latest decision, however, is part of the strategy of rapprochement with the Asian bloc, a process evidenced by the gas sales agreements concluded with Russia since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
Turkey’s entry into the ranks of the BRICS could be decided between October 22 and 24, the date on which the next meeting of the organization will take place, in this case in Russia. It is possible that there will be a reaction from the main countries of the Western bloc against Turkey following its official request to join the BRICS, but some experts, such as analysts from the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS, a French research institute focused on geopolitics and strategy), who explain how, within the BRICS, there seem to be two different intentions: “What we see is that the BRICS+ [el acrónico que se utiliza para definir a los países originales, junto a las últimas incorporaciones, que se han producido este año, de Irán, Emiratos Árabes Unidos, Egipto y Etiopía] “This is a more flexible group, born out of the desire of the countries of the South to be taken more seriously in international forums dominated by the West, and not to be an alternative to the world order. The exception, of course, is Moscow,” they explain.
Group weight increases with new additions
The BRICS have been growing steadily since their creation in 2009. Then, Brazil, Russia, India and China laid the foundations of an organized bloc to claim the importance of these countries, and try to exert pressure to gain weight in international organizations. , dominated by the Anglo-Saxon bloc and its allies. In 2010, South Africa joined the group and the acronym that still gives its name to the Organization was created.
At the end of last year, the cartel’s accounts were opened for the first time in 13 years.to integrate new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates have swelled the ranks of the BRICS, now known as BRICS+, but Argentina and Saudi Arabia, two countries that in principle had also agreed to join the group, have finally joined, they have been left out. Argentina’s refusal is due to the arrival of Javier Milei to the presidency, while Saudi Arabia has decided to suspend its entry and continue to participate in the group’s meetings as a “guest” partner.
Today, the BRICS intends to continue growing in size, and there is a long list of countries ready to join the group in the coming months. The October meeting in Russia will be crucial in this regard, with Malaysia, Thailand, Azerbaijan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Algeria and Turkey waiting their turn to join the group.
Today, thanks to the incorporations of 2024, the BRICS already represent 26% of the world’s GDP, more than 44% of the entire planet’s population and 24.3% of world oil production, among others. Little by little, the cartel wants to become a major player in world markets and has clearly expressed its intention to supplant, for example, the dollar as the most used currency for world trade, a trend that, for now, is not being observed. in production, and many analysts doubt its success. It should not be forgotten that most of the world’s trade in raw materials is denominated in dollars, even when trade relations take place between two countries that do not use the dollar as the national currency in their economy.
The list of countries knocking on the doors of the BRICS, once Turkey’s membership is confirmed, would add 5.3 percentage points to the group’s weight in the world economy, to exceed 31%; it would also add 12 percentage points (if Saudi Arabia is included) to the total oil production they would control, reaching 36% of the world supply and, above all, This would add 8.3 points to the world population under its influence, to exceed, for the first time in history, 50% of all human beings on the planet. If all the countries on the list eventually join, it will reach 52.7% of the total.
“The scenario described by researcher Julien Vercueil is coming true, which points to a continued expansion of the BRICS, against a possible breakup and deterioration of their power, as many have theorized,” they explain to IRIS. “However, in this expansion scenario, the world economy, instead of dividing between the Southern bloc and the Northern bloc, would head towards a shock that would produce reforms in the world economic order. This is the most likely scenario, given how the last country entry into the group occurred. The second entry envisaged will probably not take place in 2024, because India and Brazil are reluctant, so the countries that have requested their entry will have to wait until 2025. “But what does a year mean when it comes to reforming the architecture in the world?” explains the research center.
