The popular Jorge Azcón strengthens his support 14 months after assuming the presidency of the Government of Aragon. If regional elections were held today, the PP would go from 35.6% to 39.9% of the vote, according to a survey carried out by SocioMétrica for EL ESPAÑOL.
For her part, the mayor of Zaragoza, Natalia Chuecawould manage to revalidate the position: he would obtain one more advisor than currently, which would allow him to reach an absolute majority with 16.
According to the SocioMétrica survey, the PP would win five seats today in the Cortes of Aragon, going from the 28 they currently have to a total of 33. Jorge Azcón would remain like this just one seat missing to obtain an absolute majority.
This result comes after Vox broke the government agreements it had concluded with the PP in six autonomous communities (also in Aragon) last July, due to the popular party’s desire to welcome unaccompanied immigrant minors from the islands Canaries.
In the case of Aragon, the rupture led to the departure of the two advisors that Vox maintained within the autonomous government: the vice-president Alejandro Nolasco and the head of Agriculture and Livestock, Angel Samper.
But Santiago Abascal’s party is unable to make this gesture profitable. On the contrary, if the regional elections took place today, Vox would lose one seat in the Cortes of Aragon: it would go from seven to the current six seats.
For its part, the PSOE is not retreating, but rather recording slight progress in the region. It would go from 29.5% of the votes obtained in the last regional elections to 29.7%. This growth of two tenths would allow it to gain a seat in the regional Parliament, going from 23 to 24 currently.
However, the socialists would have virtually no possibility of preventing Jorge Azcón from being re-elected president of the regional government.
The PSOE has not yet defined who its candidate will be in the regional elections. The former president Javier Lamban He will not run again as regional head of the party and the name of the minister-spokesperson, Pilar Alegría, rings out loud and clear.
The SocioMétrica survey for EL ESPAÑOL indicates that the group Aragon Exist-Teruel Exist would retain the three seats which he currently has in the regional Parliament (despite the fact that his voting intention would go from 5% to 4.2%). All three, for the province of Teruel, which continues to be its main source of votes.
On the other hand, the rest of the political options regress, to the point that Podemos, Izquierda Unida (IU) and PAR could find themselves without representationobtaining less than 3% of the votes. Each of these parties today has a single deputy in the Cortes of Aragon.
The Chunta Aragonesista would survive, although it would lose two of the three seats it currently has. Their voting intention drops from 5.1% to 4%, according to the survey. There would only be one deputy, elected by the province of Zaragoza.
After the regional elections of March 28, Jorge Azcón was sworn in as president of Aragon obtaining the external support of the Aragonese Party (PAR), in addition to incorporating Vox into his executive.
But the PAR would now be penalized and could lose its only deputy in the Chamber, according to the SocioMétrica study. This is also indicated by the survey’s vote transfer matrix.
The PP is the party that best manages to retain its voters in Aragon: it retains the support of 83.5% of those who voted for it in the regional elections of 28-M. But even today he would receive the support of 16.6% of those who voted for PAR, 8.6% of those of Vox and 6.9% of Aragón Existen-Teruel Existen.
For its part, the PSOE retains the support of 77.4% of its former voters. And it also receives 12.3% of those who voted for PAR, 9% from Podemos, the same percentage from Aragon Exist and 8.7% from Chunta.
As a result of these movements, CHA only retains 44.2% of its current votes and Vox 63.3%. Meanwhile, Podemos and IU are bleeding, managing to retain only 40.4% of those who voted for them in previous elections.
If Jorge Azcón only has one seat left to obtain the absolute majority to govern, the mayor of Zaragoza, Natalia Chueca, would have the power to revalidate the position today, with an absolute majority of 16 councilors.
According to the survey, the inhabitants of Zaragoza reward the management of the popular mayor: the PP would go from 37.8% to 41.7% in voting intentions in the city.
The PSOE also increases, from 26.4% to 27%. The Socialists thus gain an advisor, going from 10 to 11 currently. But they do so to the detriment of their potential left-wing partners: Zaragoza en Común (ZEC) would lose its two current councilors.
For its part, Vox would maintain the four advisors it has for this mandate, despite recording a slight drop in voting intentions: these would go from 12.4% to 11.6%.
The other political options would be below 5% and would not be able to enter the City Council. Chunta would fall to 4%, Podemos would lose half of its support and be left with just 2.2%, and Aragón Exist would only reach 2%. If he ran in the municipal elections, Sumar would get 4.5%, but would not get any councillors.
Technical sheet:
Field date: From October 1 to 6, 2024.
Sample size: 1,500 interviews in Aragon (9,000 in the city of Zaragoza).
Maintenance system: CAWI with predefined sex and age quotas randomly drawn from four cross-sectional panels.
Calculation process: Balance based on district of residence, level of education and professional situation. Subsequent balancing by recall of votes in the regional and municipal elections of May 23 and general elections of July 23, and application of forecast/reality coefficients to the 2023 elections.
Margins of error: <3% for voting and other items (confidence level is not applicable as this is non-random sampling).
