Recent initiatives announced in New Zealand and the United Kingdom to ban the sale of tobacco to minors born after a certain date have put on the table the possibility of using this strategy to stop lung cancer mortality. A work published this Thursday in the magazine Lancet Public Health put tailor-made figures and estimates that banning tobacco to people born between 2006 and 2010 would prevent 1,186,500 premature deaths from this cause in 285 countries by 2095.
The work, led by researchers from the University of Santiago de Compostela and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), as well as other international collaborators, suggests that creating a generation without tobacco could prevent almost half of future deaths from lung cancer. in men and about a third in women. Furthermore, if this measure were implemented, approximately two-thirds of all lung cancer deaths would be avoided.
Tobacco use is the leading cause of preventable death worldwide. It is the leading risk factor for lung cancer and is estimated to be responsible for more than two-thirds of the 1.8 million deaths from the disease each year. “Our model highlights how much can be gained by governments considering ambitious plans to create a tobacco-free generation,” says Julia Rey Brandariz of the University of Santiago de Compostela (USC). . “This could not only save a large number of lives, but could also significantly reduce the pressure on health systems to treat and care for people suffering from health problems caused by smoking.”
Creating a tobacco-free generation could prevent nearly half of future lung cancer deaths among men and about a third among women
Currently, no country has laws prohibiting the sale of tobacco to young people. New Zealand’s groundbreaking legislation banning the sale of tobacco products to anyone born in 2009 or later was recently repealed and the UK plans to implement it from 2027.
More impact in poor countries
One of the study’s strengths is that in low- and middle-income countries, where youth populations are growing rapidly, the impact of banning tobacco sales could be even greater. “Smoking also remains very common in many of these countries, while rates have declined in many high-income countries,” says Isabelle Soerjomataram of IARC. “While we must redouble our efforts to eliminate tobacco use in all regions of the world, this is particularly important in low- and middle-income countries. »
Smoking also remains very common in many of these countries, while rates have declined in many high-income countries.
Isabelle Soerjomataram
— CIRC
The authors acknowledge certain limitations of their study. There was little data, for example, on lung cancer rates among people who never smoked, some dating from before the 2000s, which could affect estimates because rates might have changed in due to improved medical care. And the predictions didn’t take into account the use of e-cigarettes either.
Future lung cancer mortality rates were predicted based on historical data from 82 countries recorded in the WHO Mortality Database, while the number of preventable lung cancer deaths linked to smoking was calculated using data on lung cancer deaths among nonsmokers from a previous study.
1,186,500 preventable deaths
Although it seems a bit abstract, the figure of 1,186,500 premature deaths refers to children and adolescents who will be 18 years old before 2029 and who will die from this cause in the future if their incorporation into tobacco consumption continues at the current rate. , recalls Josep Maria Suelves. , head of the Smoking and Injury Prevention and Control Service of the Public Health Agency of Catalonia and member of the board of directors of the National Committee for Smoking Prevention.
In Spain, where tobacco causes more than 50,000 deaths a year, most of these measures are necessary
Josep Maria Suelves
— Member of the Public Health Agency of Catalonia and the National Committee for the Prevention of Smoking
According to him, we cannot rely exclusively on the effectiveness of the ban on selling tobacco to people born after a certain date, but rather we must continue to promote other measures with proven effectiveness, such as increase in the price of tobacco products. , the introduction of plain packaging, the expansion of spaces in which smoking is prohibited. “In Spain,” says Suelves in statements to the SMC, “where tobacco causes more than 50,000 deaths per year, most of these measures are necessary and must begin to be implemented urgently, as required by the scientific community and public institutions announce it. “.
In fact, accelerating action to eliminate tobacco use could help increase life expectancy and prevent millions of premature deaths by 2050, according to the results of a modeling study published in Lancet Public Health this Thursday. These analyzes indicate that accelerating action to eliminate tobacco use globally would increase life expectancy by 1 year for men and 0.2 years for women and prevent millions of premature deaths, which would result in 876 million years of life lost.
