The BBVA study service suggests that the growth of Castille GDP and Leon can be placed this year at 2.0 percent, which is two times higher than the one that is estimated for assembling the eurozone (0.9 percent), but half the point below for the entire Spain, where 2.5 percent expected.
As the chief economist of BBVA Research for Spain, Miguel Cardoso and the director of the north -west territory of BBVA, Guadalup Ernandez, in the submission of the report on the situation Castilla Y León, among the factors that support growth, progress and personal services and personal services and personal services and personal services Good behavior of internal demand According to EP, due to the consumption of households, which explains most of the “stability” of the autonomous economy.
To this they added that a progressive decrease in inflation and interest rates may continue to maintain a trend in household consumption in the coming months. BBVA found that the increase in consumption is greater in purchases associated with large surfaces, beauty, bars, restaurants and food, while home costs and transport lose dynamism.
BBVA concludes that the growth of the economy of Castilla and Leon “It will remain solid” in 2025 But with a slowdown caused by the “high uncertainty” of economic policy and the expectation of the influence of changes in the US tariff policy, both in Spain and in European countries.
For their part, BBVA studies indicate Moderation of economic growth in 2026When growth is expected to be 1.5 percent on the floor, which is calculated, by 2025, “in the context of a weak restoration in Europe and the high uncertainty of economic and tariff policy.”
Among the factors that will maintain growth Fall into oil and gas prices; The most expansive tone of economic policy in Europe and more growth in services due to immigration and due to increased performance time.
It also foresees it An increase in wages is higher than prices, This, according to BBVA, he must support the evolution of private consumption during the next quarters to which he unites that housing investments will increase their demand to demand. The organization also expects that a decrease in inflation and interest rates, along with an increase in wages and employment, will support the progress of household consumption in Castill and Leon.
Greater growth of the foreign population
BBVA also foresees that The export of services continues to grow Above GDP, a trend that will continue to such an extent that there is a space to strengthen the process of the de -stalization, which occurs in tourism, especially the autonomous communities of the north of the peninsula.
In addition, migrating flows are preserved, which would allow an active population to continue in 2025 and 2026. In Castilla and Leon, the growth of a foreign population than in Spain in all age bands.
The BBVA research report also foresees that if these forecasts are executed, The unemployment rate can be reduced to 8.8 percent On average, in 2026 and 24,400 new jobs can be created in 2025-2026.
For its part, the bank expects that GDP per capita in Castilla and Leon will have a better evolution than the national average, With rates of 1.7 percent in 2025 and 1.3 percent in 2026 compared with 1.2 percent and 0.4 percent for all Spain, respectively.
As a result, the BBVA research report ends at the end of 2026. The second autonomous community with the highest accumulated growth In this indicator since 2019.
