THE ATP Finals 2024 of Turin — the old “Masters Cup” — are entering their decisive phase and Carlos Alcaraz faces a crucial challenge. This tournament brings together the eight best players of the season, divided into two groups, who compete in a round-robin format. At the end of the group stage, only the top two from each group advance to the semi-finals, where the winners will ultimately face off in the grand final.
Ranking the semi-finalists might require a calculator, however, as there are multiple combinations to define who advances to the round. The ranking criteria are strict: matches won have priority; If there is a tie between two players, it is decided by direct confrontation, but if the tie is between three, we take into account the percentage of sets won and, if it persists, the percentage of games won.
In this context, Alcaraz faces this Friday Alexander Zverev in their final group match, John Newcombe, and the other couple in the group is Andrei Rublev against casper Ruudwhich adds a layer of complexity to the accounts.
Currently, Zverev leads the group with two wins and no sets lost (4-0 in sets and 25-17 in matches), while Ruud and Alcaraz are tied in wins, losses and sets won, although the Norwegian has an advantage thanks to its percentage of matches (22-19 against 19-22 for the Spaniards). Rublev, without victories and with a negative record of 0-4 in sets, closes the group with the least chance of advancing.
Despite the uncertainty, there are clear scenarios. Alcaraz is not guaranteed an assist even if he beats Zverev, but he would not be mathematically eliminated if he loses, since that would depend on the results of the match between Ruud and Rublev, which will be played later the same day.
This is how Alcaraz would be classified
If Alcaraz beats Zverev and Rublev beats Ruud, Alcaraz would qualify first in the group. Another possibility is that, if Alcaraz wins in straight sets and Ruud beats Rublev in three, both Alcaraz and Zverev would secure a place in the semi-finals. First place, in this case, would be defined by the percentage of matches in which Zverev has an advantage.
If Alcaraz loses in three sets to Zverev, but Rublev beats Ruud in straight sets, Alcaraz could move to second, since his set percentage would be higher than Ruud’s.
Carlos Alcaraz, during his match against Rublev
Reuters
You should therefore use a calculator
In other cases, the percentage of matches will be decisive. If Alcaraz beats Zverev in straight sets and Ruud does the same against Rublev, second place would go to whoever has the best match percentage among the three. This same criterion would apply if the two matches were defined in three sets.
On the other hand, if Alcaraz loses in straight sets to Zverev and Ruud beats Rublev, second place would again be decided by the match percentage between Alcaraz, Ruud and Rublev.
This is how Alcaraz would be eliminated
There are situations that would mean the elimination of Alcaraz. If Zverev beats him and Ruud beats Rublev, the Murcian would be eliminated. Likewise, if Zverev beats Alcaraz in straight sets and Rublev beats Ruud in three sets, the Norwegian would qualify second thanks to his better sets percentage. Even if Alcaraz wins in three sets and Ruud beats Rublev in two, Ruud would qualify by set percentage.
The last day of the John Newcombe group will undoubtedly be under high tension. The duel between Alcaraz and Zverev, scheduled for 2:00 p.m. local time, followed by the confrontation between Ruud and Rublev at 8:30 p.m., promises an emotional closing in which each match and each set will be fundamental in determining who advances. to the semi-finals of these ATP Finals.
