The message is cordial, Xi Jinping congratulates Donald Trump the day after his election. The Chinese president calls on the two countries to get along, but also notes that the relationship could go in any direction: “History has shown that China and the United States benefit from cooperation and lose from confrontation”wrote on Thursday, November 7.
This second hypothesis is on the minds of everyone in China, where they are preparing to face the Trump storm again. For months, the Republican candidate threatened to impose a 60% customs tax on the entry of all Chinese products onto American soil. In July, UBS bank estimated that such a measure would halve the growth of the Chinese economy.
Beijing is therefore trying to understand what the billionaire wants. Will it just be a matter of commercial rebalancing with the possibility of reaching a “deal” that makes you look like a winner? Or an endless spiral, partly ideological, into which other controversial issues would be thrown, such as the origins of Covid-19, this pandemic that Trump’s camp considers cost him re-election in 2020?
On the other hand, if the new American president lets US alliances in the region weaken, China will have much to gain. “If it is positive, we will be positive too, but if the United States creates difficulties for us, we must be prepared to respond”summarizes Shen Dingli, an international relations scholar based in Shanghai.
China remains more exposed than Washington
Given the candidate’s protectionist promises and the first trade war he waged against China starting in 2018, many anticipate a rapid deterioration in relations between the two countries. “The Chinese will try to open channels to the future Trump administration, but it will be different. There are too many liabilities in the relationship between China and the United States during his first term and it is unlikely that the first trade measures, when they arrive, will simply be a bluff.says Rick Waters, China director of the consulting firm Eurasia Group and, until 2023, China coordinator at the State Department.
China considers itself better armed this time, but remains much more exposed than Washington in the event of a trade conflict: the United States imported $427 billion in Chinese products in 2023, while China only imported $148 billion of American products. .
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