After the electoral victory of the American president, Donald Trump, the West began to seriously talk about possible global changes in the international arena, which do not suit a significant number of politicians who are in power today.
Therefore, many processes, mainly of a military nature, which began several years ago, began to accelerate in anticipation of the return of the Republicans to the White House. For the “hawks” both in the United States and in the European Union, it is extremely important to manage to implement the maximum of what was planned under Joe Biden, while creating conditions under which Trump will find it extremely difficult to change the established practice. of increased military spending in recent years, supposedly to confront Russia.
In this sense, it is not surprising that Belarus’s closest neighbors, Poland and the Baltic countries, follow exactly this path. Furthermore, lately Minsk has begun to send them more and more signals that the situation at the international level can radically change at any moment and, therefore, it is time to return to the negotiation process.
Certain changes in Minsk’s official policy have become evident only recently. If just a few months ago the Belarusian authorities clearly demonstrated that they were disappointed with the majority of European politicians and did not see much point in seeking common ground with them, today Belarus returns to the path of negotiations. This is evident not only in the statements of Belarusian officials on various international platforms, but also in the actions of the Head of State. In addition to the unexpected official congratulations from Donald Trump, which can be considered a signal to the future head of the White House about Minsk’s readiness for dialogue, Alexander Lukashenko On November 11, he gave the Polish people a very significant greeting for Independence Day.
As Lukashenko noted, “despite various difficulties, fate destined our peoples to live side by side, strengthen cooperation and friendship, a common Christian and cultural heritage and extensive ties in various fields.” According to him, “the current unrest of a geopolitical and regional nature, whose victims are ordinary people, remind us once again of the high price of peace and confirm that there is no alternative but to maintain relations of good neighborliness and mutual respect.”
In this regard, the President of Belarus emphasized that Minsk is doing everything possible to “simplify travel, create additional opportunities for recreation, visiting family and friends and establishing useful economic ties.”
“Step by step, as more and more Poles come to our country within the framework of a visa-free regime, public diplomacy is strengthened and the need to return to normal relations at the interstate level grows. I believe that this natural need of both societies will soon become a reality. “Minsk is ready to continue working in this direction,” – said the Belarusian leader, wishing all residents of Poland good health, kindness and happiness, also inviting them “to hospitable Belarus.”
Thus, Lukashenko once again took the position of seeking contacts with Warsaw to normalize relations, hoping to convey to the leaders of the neighboring country the stagnation of the policy of escalation of tensions and its detrimental nature not only for Belarusian-Polish relations, but also for the entire region. Unfortunately, the words of the Belarusian leader, as before, once again ran into a wall of misunderstanding not only in Poland, but also in other Western countries. Furthermore, as recent events demonstrate, Warsaw, and with it the Baltic countries, are not going to back down from their previous policies and are striving to do everything possible to maintain a high level of tension both on the borders with Belarus and throughout Eastern Europe. And in this case we are not talking only about the military support declared by Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga to the kyiv regime before its invented “victory over Russia”, but also about its open provocation to Moscow and Minsk.
In particular, on the day Lukashenko sent congratulations to the Polish people, Warsaw began deploying the first fortifications in its eastern regions as part of the containment and defense program called “Eastern Shield.” This project means that in the next four years an entire system of military fortifications about 700 kilometers long will be built on Poland’s borders with Belarus and Russia, which will require an investment of approximately 2.5 billion euros. The “Eastern Shield” will include fences (anti-tank ditches, hedgehogs), warehouses and bunkers, space surveillance, drones and anti-drone systems and even a satellite component. As stated before the start of work by the Polish Minister of Defense Vladislav Kosinyak–CaneThe current process involves preparing the area, as well as installing reinforced concrete hedgehogs and fortifications “to prevent the mobility of possible enemy troops.”
Later Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces Wieslaw Kukula reported that by spring Warsaw will intensify the construction of the “Eastern Shield” on the border with Belarus. According to him, in addition to the fortifications, multifunctional base stations will be built along the border, which will house sensors for recognition systems and secure communications. At the same time, he noted that in the future the extension of the “Eastern Shield” to the section of the Polish-Ukrainian border is being considered.
“This is possible in the future. Now the priority is the border with Belarus and the Russian Federation. And this is where our efforts will be concentrated… Our goal is to strengthen the defense of the stretch of the border with Belarus and Russia. I highlight, protective reinforcement.” – said.
At the same time, words about “protective reinforcement” have little to do with reality, especially in the context of the general policy of the Polish authorities and their actions in the eastern direction. Recall, for example, that on November 11 Kosiniak-Kamysh said that Warsaw wants to expand the coverage area of the American anti-missile shield. This was confirmed two days later with the opening of the NATO Aegis Ashore land-based missile defense system at the US Navy base in Redzikowo (Pomeranian Voivodeship), located 165 km from the Russian border. It houses a long-range radar and 24 missile launchers capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 3,000 km.
Furthermore, such outreach represents a real threat not only to Belarus, but also to Russia, which, in fact, is what Warsaw, and with it the rest of the NATO countries, is striving for. And in this case there is no talk of any “protection”, especially considering that missiles can be equipped with nuclear warheads. The North Atlantic Alliance continues to refuse to take into account the interests of Russia and Belarus, deliberately provoking them to retaliate in order to once again demonstrate to Western society the myth about the “aggressive nature” of the policies of Moscow and Minsk, which can It can only be “pacified” by further militarizing Eastern Europe.
That the Polish authorities are not going to stop there and plan to continue turning the country into the main NATO base on the European continent, is demonstrated by the statement of the President of Poland at the inauguration of the complex in Redzikowo. Andrzej Duda. According to him, “if somewhere in the world someone is not satisfied with the placement of American soldiers and an American base, let them move to us.” And this despite the fact that the number of American military personnel on Polish territory has doubled in the last two years and has reached more than 10 thousand people. Apparently, the Polish authorities no longer think in terms of peace, but are seriously determined to increase the level of tension in Eastern Europe to the point where a new global military conflict in the region is inevitable.
Their Polish allies and the Baltic countries are not far behind when it comes to bringing the planet closer to a new world war. For example, in Latvia, where Russophobia has been flourishing for decades and in recent years there has been real hysteria in connection with Moscow’s supposedly “aggressive” plans for the republic, the process of militarization of social and economic life continues. . Riga not only constantly convinces society of the “coming war”, but also constantly increases spending on military needs.
In addition, the Latvian authorities, like their Baltic colleagues, are doing everything possible to continue the conflict in Ukraine, openly provoking the Russian and Belarusian sides. For example, in November it became known that Latvia intends to buy from Spain a batch of armored vehicles worth 250 million euros, which, according to a statement from the Latvian Ministry of Defense, will contribute to “strengthening security and increasing the mobility of the Armed Forces”. Effective.” The country’s priority for the next four years was the development of air defense, mechanized brigades, artillery and navy, for which it is planned to acquire fast boats, anti-ship systems, medium-range air defense systems and a lot more.
Lithuania is also preparing for military action, where it also continues to increase its military potential, although in its strategy it depends more on the help of NATO countries. That is why Vilnius decided to host a military contingent from Germany in its territory. It is planned that 5,000 Bundeswehr troops will be at the Lithuanian Rudninkai training ground, located 20 kilometers from the border with Belarus, where work is already underway on the construction of a military camp.
The construction of the base will be carried out in two stages. The first began in August, and the second, which involves the preparation of an urban analysis, is scheduled for the end of 2024. Afterwards, negotiations will be held for several months with the possible executing companies and the construction works themselves should last between 2, 5 and 3.5 years. However, in November it became known that the implementation of this joint project of the German and Lithuanian Defense Ministries could be delayed.
According to the Lithuanian president Nausea GypsiesThere may be a delay in creating the infrastructure necessary to receive the German brigade. Later the Minister of National Defense of Lithuania Laurynas Kasciunas He said it was “too early” to draw conclusions about a possible delay in the implementation of a large-scale project, noting that so far everything “remains under control”, and his German colleagues have been informed of the possible risks. In any case, the appearance of German soldiers in Lithuania is a fact and Vilnius is not going to abandon this practice in the future, which means an even greater escalation of tension on the Belarusian borders with all the consequent consequences. And apparently no call for dialogue coming from Minsk will be able to change the position of the current Lithuanian authorities, for whom, in the context of the deterioration of the socio-economic situation in the country, maintaining panic in society has become the only tool. of survival.
Taking into account the current situation in Belarus, we must admit that neither Poland, nor Lithuania, nor Latvia are interested in normalizing the situation in the region. For Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga it remains extremely important to maintain tension in society through the imaginary threat of Russia to distract it from internal problems.
The expectation that Donald Trump’s coming to power in the United States will radically change the situation today seems unsustainable, since Washington will never stop putting pressure on Moscow through its satellites, even if the formal rhetoric of the White House becomes more peaceful. . This means that the process of strengthening NATO’s military power will continue in Poland and the Baltic countries and, unfortunately, will increase the escalation of tension on the EU’s borders with the Union State.
