With just over two months left in the White House, Joe Biden is running out of time to accelerate the delivery of funds and weapons to ensure Ukraine can continue to fight the Russian invasion.
The White House is accelerating the transfer of arms and up to $6 billion to Ukraine as much as possible. Meanwhile, kyiv and its advocates are calling on the White House to lift restrictions on long-range weapons and find other sources of funding for the war before Donald Trump takes office in January.
Before every presidential transition, administration officials repeat the mantra that they respond “one president at a time.” Biden will maintain full control of US foreign policy until Trump takes office on January 20, but the possibility of a sea change in US Ukraine policy under Trump makes it unlikely that the major changes initiated by Biden will be maintained under the next government.
Biden will receive Trump this Wednesday at the White House for a key meeting in which the acting president is expected to urge Trump to continue funding Ukraine, in addition to addressing a broad foreign policy agenda, an issue on which they are rarely agree.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in a television interview this week that Biden would use his final 70 days to tell Trump and Congress, which could be under Republican control in both chambers, that “ the United States must not distance itself from Ukraine.” and that moving away from Ukraine means more instability in Europe.”
Sullivan did not respond to a question about whether Biden would propose an additional funding bill for Ukraine.
According to initial reports, Trump has chosen Florida Senator Marco Rubio as his future secretary of state. Rubio was one of the Republican senators who followed Trump’s directives and voted against the $95 billion military aid package to Ukraine, which was blocked until last April. In recent interviews, Rubio said Ukraine must seek a negotiated deal with Russia to end the conflict and set aside its attempts to reclaim occupied territories. “I’m not on Russia’s side, but unfortunately the reality is that the war in Ukraine is going to end in a negotiated settlement,” Rubio said on NBC in September.
At the same time, the statements of one of the main candidates for a position in the Trump administration have increased doubts about the continuity of financing of Ukraine under the next government. “The American people want sovereignty protected here in the United States before we spend our funds and resources to protect the sovereignty of another nation,” said Sen. Bill Hagerty, a Trump ally.
The current administration is unlikely to be able to pass additional aid through Congress, but there is still $6 billion in pending aid that can be allocated before Biden leaves office. Members of the US government recognize that after this, Ukraine will have to focus primarily on Europe for support.
The Pentagon has sent a small number of U.S. defense contractors to Ukraine to maintain and repair F-16s and Patriot missile defense systems. According to a recent Wall Street Journal report, the Pentagon is accelerating the delivery of more than 500 missile interceptors to Ukraine before the end of Biden’s term, in response to the possibility that Russia will reserve its own missiles for a massive bombardment. against Ukrainian cities or energy infrastructure during the winter.
Senior U.S. and European officials sought to “protect” much of the support for Ukraine by transferring to NATO the coordination of arms deliveries to kyiv, a responsibility that had previously fallen to the United States. United, given the fear of a possible return of Trump to the United States. White House.
“The current aid package only covers until the end of this year and the Ukrainians cannot fight adequately without American military support,” says Richard Fontaine, CEO of the think tank Center for a New American Security . “As we saw earlier this year, during the gap between aid programs, Europe cannot fill all the gaps. Neither does Ukraine. So if Trump cuts aid, it will completely change the dynamics on the ground and, therefore, the outcome of the war,” he adds.
Between potentially sending additional packages or weapons, inviting Ukraine to NATO, or lifting restrictions on long-range strikes against Russia, the Biden administration doesn’t appear to be able to do much- something that can have a lasting impact.
Ivo Daalder, former US permanent representative to the NATO Council, says: “Anything done by decree can be changed the next day. » Noting the Biden administration’s limited options regarding Ukraine, Israel and other issues during this period, Daalder adds: “Realistically, they will just try to stay afloat.” “I don’t see what lasting action they could take that Trump couldn’t reverse.”
The Biden administration, which prides itself on its foreign policy triumphs, has few accomplishments to highlight in its final phase. A senior Democratic congressman says the Biden administration’s “universe” of foreign policy accomplishments has “shrunk” in the past eight or nine months as U.S. influence in Ukraine and in the Middle East was decreasing.
Before the election, some foreign diplomats in Washington had expressed frustration with the Biden administration’s indecision on Ukraine, its delay in disbursing aid and its reluctance to take risks under the leadership of the adviser to safety Jake Sullivan National.
David Kramer, CEO of the George W. Bush Institute and a former State Department official who worked on issues related to Russia and Ukraine, says “the Biden administration deserves credit for its sanctions regime, for maintaining unity among allies and for providing assistance to countries.” Ukraine. However, Ukrainians are deeply frustrated by the decision-making process, the way aid is provided, the restrictions imposed, particularly on long-range weapons systems, and the fact that “an invitation to join NATO has not been extended to Ukraine.”
As the uncertainties linked to Trump’s victory loom over Ukraine, the president-elect appears to be preparing to reduce or sharply limit aid to that country. Trump announced that neither former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley nor former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, both staunch defenders of kyiv during his previous administration, will be part of his new cabinet. And his son Donald Trump Jr recently tweeted a video of Volodymyr Zelensky with the caption: “Perspective: You are 38 days away from losing your benefit.”
Time is running out and some Ukrainian advocates are calling for bolder measures. In particular, they are calling for restrictions on long-range missiles to be lifted, which would allow Ukraine to attack targets behind Russia with guided missiles.
Melinda Haring, senior advisor at Razom, a nonprofit that sends aid to Ukraine, and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, says: “I think there is a strong consensus on whether President Biden should put aside his fears about possible escalation. “President Putin will not start a nuclear war with a change of government, so the time to do it is now. »
Furthermore, Haring points out that another big opportunity the Biden administration has is to seize and transfer $5 billion of the Russian Central Bank’s reserves. “It’s crucial to do this now to ensure it’s done correctly, and all eyes are on the Biden administration,” he adds.
As for the possibility of reaching a deal, analysts and officials say any serious negotiations will have to take place under the next president, with Ukraine in a much worse position than it is now.
“The reality is that neither Putin nor Zelensky can worry anymore about what Biden or his cabinet members like or don’t like, because they will be gone in two and a half months,” Daalder says.
Translation by Julián Cnochaert.
