Waiting for the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House becomes endless in Israel. While Tel Aviv tries to prolong the war on the Lebanese front until the Republican takes over the presidency of the United States, the government of Joe Biden He is working hard to achieve a ceasefire that gives Democrats credit for dissolving a front in the Middle East.
Thursday evening, American diplomacy submitted a draft truce agreement to the Lebanese government. Washington’s ambassador in Beirut summoned Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, to his legation and proposed the terms of the agreement. The main – and most compelling – was a lasting ceasefire instead of the 21 or 60 day truce that the United States had proposed in the past and that Beirut had already rejected. According to the Lebanese newspaper The Orient-The Day, The plan also envisages the deployment of 5,000 soldiers of the Lebanese Armed Forces that they would join UNIFIL peacekeepers to ensure the military expulsion of Hezbollah from the south of the country.
Beirut perceived this offer as an amelioration of pre-existing conditions. The next morning, as the city began with an attack on its busiest roundabout, Berri himself received in the Lebanese capital Ali LarijaniKhomeini’s advisor recently arrived from Tehran. The Ayatollah’s envoy arrived with the intention of shaking the hand of the Lebanese government and, despite being the main supporter of the militia party, agreed: “We support you in all circumstances.” Including seeking consensus with Iran’s enemies: When asked by a reporter whether the Islamic Republic would be willing to work under the deal proposed by the United States, Larijani replied that at this point, “Iran will not sabotage any solution.” “, even though this is written in Washington.
In addition to demonstrating Tehran’s reluctance to see Hezbollah continue to exhaust itself on the front, the tone of the Persian diplomat this Friday reconciles Iran’s immediate objectives in Lebanon with those of Biden’s United States. Amos Hochsteinspecial advisor to the Democratic president, canceled his visit to Tel Aviv and Beirut this week. The diplomat, to whom Donald Trump has already given his agreement to continue negotiations with Israel and Lebanon from January, announced that he would only return to the region “to announce an agreement”.
But What is the motivation behind these new efforts, two months after the start of the Israeli aggression and a year after the start of the war in Gaza? At a time when Benjamin Netanyahu He doesn’t know how to emphasize that he prefers to resolve the Hezbollah problem with weapons, with Democrats seeking to hang the medal of having achieved the ceasefire in Lebanon before Biden finishes his term.
In this equation, all eyes are on Israel. Tel Aviv is also not moving closer to negotiations. THURSDAY, Elie Cohenenergy minister and member of Netanyahu’s security cabinet, said the prospects for a ceasefire were the most promising since the conflict began. However, the conditions imposed by Israel seem ridiculous to Beirut: they demand freedom for the Israeli defense forces to operate militarily in Lebanon and the imposition of land, sea and air surveillance on the Arab country. Neither Hezbollah nor the Lebanese government would agree to go through this obstacle.
Everything suggests that Netanyahu is resisting time as the countdown to his replacement in the White House approaches. According to an analysis of Washington PostIsrael is not really looking for an agreement, but rather is laying the foundations for a solution that it hopes to apply as soon as Donald Trump, who promises to be more permissive with his ally in the Middle East, assumes the American presidency. While Biden leaves the presidency, Tel Aviv must maintain the state of negotiations and take the opportunity to intensify its operations in Lebanon.
Netanyahu is continuing a second phase of his ground offensive in the south of Israel’s neighbor these days, and attacks on Beirut are returning to levels at the start of the offensive. In fact, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported on Friday an alarming escalation in the number of casualties from Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon. According to OCHA, Israel’s new tactic involves hitting some of the Arab country’s most densely populated areas harder.including the southern suburbs of Beirut.
At the same time, Israeli troops are entering new parts of Lebanese territory. For its part, Hezbollah counterattacks with a strength it has not demonstrated until now. On Wednesday, Lebanese militias twice attacked the headquarters of the Israeli Defense Ministry. If the movements are not well measured, January 20 could be too late for “the best friend Israel has had in the White House” – as Netanyahu once defined him – to return to establish Pax Trumpiana.
