According to the American newspaper Financial TimeThe Biden administration has reportedly asked France and the UK to Limiting Ukraine’s use of its Storm Shadow missiles. Although Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer were ready to authorize Zelensky’s troops to use these missiles against Russia on condition that they were limited to military objectives, both ultimately decided to follow the North American doctrine so as not to upset their relations with the Western superpower.
From the outset of the Kursk raid, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan made it clear that Ukraine would not be able to use ATACMS itself from Russian territory. The United States has recently approved some exceptions to its doctrine of not attacking Russia within its borders, but these exceptions are limited to specific military conglomerates close to the border with Kharkiv, with the dual aim of preventing further incursions into the region and limiting continued bombing of civilians in the capital.
For the rest, the blockade is maintained and, it seems, extended to the allies. As always, behind the decision hides the “fear of escalation”The Biden administration has feared a nuclear escalation by Russia almost since day one of the invasion, believing every threat emanating from the Kremlin.
It should be recalled that Zelensky decided not to even inform his ally about the entry of his men into Kursk because he knew that under no circumstances would they allow him to do so.
These tensions obviously do not help Ukraine at all. The Netherlands, for example, has already stated that They will not impose any limitations on the use of their F-16s. as long as the laws of war are respected and are not used in attacks on civilians. Others are watching and cannot always help. The White House has decided to remain in a dangerous middle position, in which it does not curry favor with the Kremlin and does not respond to Ukraine’s military wishes. Something very similar, however, to what is happening in the Middle East.
8 km from Pokrovsk
From the White House, Sullivan is being singled out as the mastermind behind this “anti-escalation” doctrine that only works one way. The Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, Yes, I would be ready to allow Ukraine to fully use its weapons that have been made available to you. We have been at war for two and a half years, all the red lines established since Moscow have been crossed and nothing has happened. Why not allow Ukraine to use the attack as a defensive measure, provided that the targets are controlled?
Faced with the refusal of its Western partners, Ukraine is making its own long range missileswhich would complement the Neptunes and drones that systematically attack Crimea, Rostov and various refineries and power plants throughout western Russia.
We are talking about projectiles capable of hitting targets hundreds of kilometers away, but it will take some time for them to become available and operational. Ukraine cannot wait that long.
And he cannot wait because the euphoria caused by the success of his raid on Kursk, in what was supposed to be a change in the war scenario and an initiative that would lead to the sending of Russian troops from Donbass, has been followed by a certain pessimism about the situation in the Pokrovsk-Kurajovo-Vuhledar axis, south of Donetsk. The Russians are already only eight kilometers from Pokrovsk and, in recent weeks, their advance has accelerated, at a pace, it must be said, rather slow.
The Double Tactical Threat
It must be remembered that Russia has a tendency to stagnate or rather that Ukraine is a specialist in always finding a way to defend itself. The Russians are at the gates of Chasiv Yar since April and they still haven’t found a way to cross the Channel. In fact, they arrived at Chasiv Yar a year after they had completed the conquest of Bakhmut, located a little over ten kilometers away. The same can be said of Toretsk or Vuhledar itself, still under surveillance, still on the verge of collapse, but still under Ukrainian control.
That said, the news coming from the front is not exactly optimistic. The Eastern and Southern Fronts could unite at any moment and eliminate Vuhledar. In fact, the Russians could have launched an attack from Shevchenko to complete the encirclement of the Ukrainian city.
As for PokrovskRussia presents a double threat: a direct attack on the communications center – the most important for Ukraine in Donbass after the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk conglomerate – via Hrodivka and Novogodrivka… or bypass it and try to advance along the N15 road, which would cut off the Ukrainian defenses.
By choosing the latter solution, Russia would have the opportunity to isolate all remaining defensive troops between the road and the southern front, in the direction of Zaporizhzhia. This would of course be a bold decision, to which the Russians are not accustomed, but a very dangerous decision for the Ukrainians, because it would endanger a new region.
Russia has already controlled southern Zaporizhzhia practically since the beginning of the war and has always sought a way to cross the Dnieper and seize the provincial capital.
The chances of success are slim because we have seen that everything is moving very slowly in this war, but Ukraine would do well to consider the possibility of covering this space and preparing for a possible incursion. If Gerasimov encounters resistance there, he will most likely return to his original plans, the ones that come most naturally to him: straight ahead until they go away. This is how Russia has won its last wars and this is how it intends to do it in Ukraine. Without tactics or strategies. Brute force or nothing.
