Brussels believes that economic growth of Spain will be 3% in 2024 and will respect the deficit target this year, but believes that it will not be able to settle its accounts in 2025 and 2026. Furthermore, the European Commission is still studying the impact of the damage caused by the DANA in Valenciawhich, according to him, will affect “beyond its borders”.
So, even if he did not collect the impact of flooding and flooding in the economy, Brussels warns that “damage to infrastructure in affected regions may have broader repercussions on the productive fabric beyond their borders, while disruptions to economic activity could revive the economy”. inflationary pressuresespecially when it comes to food.
In this sense, Brussels warns that Spain runs the risk risk of not respecting the reduction of the deficit committed to its multi-year adjustment plan, since it forecasts 2.6% for 2025, a tenth above the 2.5% planned in the plan, and 2.7% for 2026, exceeding the 2.1 of six tenths% of the acquired commitment.
Brussels perspectives on Spain
The Commission also forecasts a fall in inflation this year to 2.8%, compared to the 3.1% forecast by Brussels in the spring, and expects it to continue to fall to 2.2% in 2025 and to 2% in 2026. what will happen when the price stability.
On the other hand, Spain will continue tops unemployment datawhich reaches 11.5% in 2024, well above data from the Eurozone (6.5%) and the EU (6.1%), although employment is also expected to grow by 2.3% in 2024, followed by a decline to 2.1% in 2025.
Thus, Brussels exposes many risks and weaknesses of the Spanish economy despite the optimism of the executive, which focuses on increasing Gross domestic product (GDP) despite the fact that it benefits from great momentum thanks to the public spending has soared of Sanchez.
European economy
On the other hand, the European Commission maintains the growth forecast of 0.8% for the euro zone and reduced to 0.9% that of the whole EU in 2024, the latter, a tenth below the previous forecast, and also degrades the estimate for 2025, which falls to 1.3% in the case of the euro zone, and to 1.5% in the EU, a tenth less in both cases.
Brussels also expects EU general inflation to fall to 2.6% in 2024, a tenth lower than in the previous forecast, and to 2.4% in 2025, two tenths above of what was forecast, while, in the eurozone, a reduction is expected to reach 2.4% in 2024, a tenth less than the May forecast, while the figure of 2.1% in 2025 is maintained.
However, the Community Executive estimates that inflation will not fall below the 2% objective set out in the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB) until 2026, when it is expected to fall to 1.9% in the eurozone and 2% in the EU as a whole.