Excluding from the budget agreement the tax on energy companies, which the PSOE agreed with the PNV and Junts against the criteria of the rest of the investment partners – including the minority coalition partner, Sumar – would have a negative effect on the deficit objectives to which the Government has committed to the European Commission. This is one of the conclusions that emerge from the autumn economic forecasts prepared by community technicians, who once again warn that the elimination of special taxes on banks and electricity companies will lead to an increase in the account deficit given the reduction in revenue this will cause for businesses. public coffers.
The deficit trajectory that the Government sent to Brussels establishes that it will be at 3% at the end of this year – the European Commission hopes that it will be reached – and that it will fall to 2.5% in 2025 (the Community technicians’ calculations are that there will be a gap of one tenth due to the increase in interest). The European Commission’s analysis, however, is based on an unchanged political scenario in the absence of a budgetary project in Spain.
As for 2026, the Government’s objective is to reduce the deficit to 2.1%. However, Brussels forecasts raise it to 2.6% and attribute it largely to the disappearance of these two taxes temporarily approved in the midst of the energy crisis. “In 2026, the public deficit is expected to increase slightly, to 2.7% of GDP, due to the expiration of taxes on banks and energy companies,” concludes the European Commission.
The warning from the European Commission is not new, but this time it comes in the middle of budget negotiations and, more precisely, in the fight to perpetuate these extraordinary rates. The socialists distanced themselves from Sumar in the negotiations and agreed with the PNV and Junts to remove the tax on energy companies, while retaining that of banks. In total, 2.859 million euros were collected in 2024 thanks to these two taxes.
The message from Brussels also coincides with reforms corresponding to the fifth installment of European funds, which includes tax reform. The European Commission insists that Spain has the opportunity to harmonize its taxation with the rest of Europe, while the socialist wing of the government now argues that the changes made in recent years are sufficient. “We have already taken all the necessary decisions to, precisely, respect the obligations implied by this stage of the fifth payment. [del Plan de Recuperación]” Economy Minister Carlos Body said in June.
Among the most concrete initiatives is “green” taxation which, as its report points out, is well below the European average (1.5% of GDP compared to 2% in Europe). Brussels estimates that it is therefore possible to raise up to 7.3 billion additional euros in this way.
