That stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic have rebounded this week neither surprises nor excites me. However, I believe that the bulls, that is, Those buying in hope of a positive context in the coming weeks have managed to save a dead ball on the Nasdaq 100.
On September 6, the main technology index reached the theoretical support zone of 18,400 points, which represents a Fibonacci correction of 61.80% since the last major rebound initiated at the lows of the panic session of August 5. Mr.My attention has been focused on observing market behavior this week.
Few are aware that we are about to confirm several technical signals that could have led to a return to the August lows, which, I assure you, I have not yet ruled out, even if the short-term rebound seems to remove this risk..
I continue to maintain my position that The decline seen at the beginning of the month was too significant to be considered a simple consolidation.. I fear that before we see a sustained bullish environment, we will face episodes of greater volatility and erratic price movements, which could confuse many investors, especially those who do not have one. a clear roadmap. in me In this case, I recommend once again to have all the patience in the world.
If a few weeks ago I suggested not to panic and to take advantage of the decline to levels that had been expected for months – levels that moved the indices 10% away from their last peak (remember the 10% rule?) – now I invite you to stay calm. In fact, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to take advantage of the latest rise to reduce exposure to the stock market if it is very high.
Don’t be afraid to have cash; it will be valuable ammunition if we finally see another pullback that leads to such important indices as the S&P500 to the August lows, around 5,000/5,100 points. This is, I insist, the red line that separates the current bullish context from a potentially bearish context, which would force us to take refuge in winter quarters.
There will be indications that a more corrective than consolidative context will be foreseen if the indices lose the lows of last autumn in September, such as 5,400 points of the S&P500THE 4,730 of the EuroStoxx 50 or the 11 138 of the Ibex 35. If these supports are given up, do not see it as something negative, but as a future opportunity to buy again with a better risk-return equation, as would be the case at levels of 5,000/5,100 inside S&P500.
