A “little secret” between former President Donald Trump and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, is fueling the nightmares of Democrats in the run-up to the legislative elections which will also be voted on November 5.
At stake are the 435 seats in the entire Lower House, where the Republicans now have a majority, and a third of the 100 seats in the Senate, where the Democrats are in the majority. The scenario that won’t let Democrats sleep is that Johnson aligns with Trump to try to prevent the certification of Kamala Harris’ victory if she wins.
The slim possibility that Johnson will be re-elected again speaker and getting electoral certification of Harris’ victory is something Democratic congressmen have been considering for some time. In 2020, Johnson already worked with Trump to undermine the election result by leading a campaign to overturn the results in four key states where Joe Biden won. Democrats’ nerves were tested when Trump, at the Madison Square Garden rally, discussed a “little secret” with Johnson.
“I think with our little secret we will do very well in the House [de Representantes]”, Trump said, addressing Johnson, who was also one of the evening’s speakers. “Our little secret has a big impact. “He and I have a little secret: we’ll tell you what it’s about acts at the end of the campaign.” Since then, Democrats have continued to speculate about what Johnson might or might not do and what would happen if the Republicans gained a majority in the Lower House and he was re-elected president.
Nor was the conditional Johnson used in an interview with NBC reassuring, where the reporter asked if he would commit to following the regular process to certify the result in 2025. “Of course, if we have free, fair and secure elections, we will respect the Constitution. Of course it is,” Johnson said.
However, the scenario of Johnson being re-elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives seems highly improbable. Projections from the latest polls on the congressional race go in the opposite direction and suggest that an unprecedented scenario could occur in Congress in which both chambers change color. That is to say victory for the Democrats in the Lower House (which is now under Republican control) and victory for the Republicans in the Senate (where the Democrats have the majority).
While in the House of Representatives, it is chaired by speakerelected by members of Congress, the Senate is chaired by the country’s vice president, who has the power to decide the votes. Another of its tasks is to certify the presidential results. In 2020, Trump pressured – unsuccessfully – his vice president, Mike Pence, not to certify the result in the Senate.
The certification of the result by the Upper House is only a simple formality, since nowhere in the Constitution does the President of the Senate give the power to annul the electoral victory. Even if Pence had given in to Trump’s pressure, it would have been a dangerous scenario.
Currently, because Harris is vice president, she is also president of the Senate and could therefore find herself having to certify her own victory.
Before certification to Congress, Johnson would have other options if he wanted to help Trump. He could help organize Republican trials or pressure state election commissions to reject legitimate votes. He could also reject electors from some states and try to refuse to accept new Democratic members of the House of Representatives.
Avoid blockages
Beyond preventing the worst-case scenario from becoming a reality, Democrats have a particular interest in winning the House of Representatives for two reasons, which are two sides of the same coin. In a scenario where Harris wins, having control of the House of Representatives would accelerate many of the campaign promises and avoid blocking situations such as that experienced with the military aid program to Ukraine.
Likewise, if Trump wins the election, having control of the lower house would guarantee Democrats some room to limit the tycoon’s actions. This same logic works in the same way from the point of view of the Republicans, who want to ensure they maintain the majority in the Lower House.
In the case of the House of Representatives, the majority is 218 seats. Currently, Republicans have 220 and Democrats have 213. Democrats, if they keep their current seats, only need to gain five more seats to control the lower house. In total, eight Republican congressmen are at risk of losing their seats and all are in two heavily Democratic states: New York and California. Outside of safe territory, two Iowa Republicans are fighting hard to keep their seats: Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn. In Nebraska, the seat of Republican Don Bacon, representative of the Omaha district, could also be in danger. Four additional Republicans could see their seats threatened, two in Arizona, one in Oregon and one in Pennsylvania. In total, there are 15 vulnerable seats for Republicans, compared to 11 questionable seats for Democrats.
Even though Democrats have comparatively better prospects than Republicans, there are still 11 races that could be lost: Reps. Mary Peltola in Alaska, Yadira Caraveo in Colorado, Jared Golden in Maine, Don Davis in North Carolina , Gabe Vásquez at Nuevo Mexico. , Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania and Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez in Washington State. And there are two undecided seats in Michigan, as well as one in Virginia.
In the Senate, Democrats currently have a 51-vote majority thanks to a coalition with independent senators, while Republicans have 49. This year, 34 seats are up for grabs in the Upper House and Democrats start at a disadvantage, since They are defending 23 seats, while the Republicans have only 11. To control the Senate, the Republicans only need one seat if Trump wins or two seats if he loses.
Of the 34 seats to be filled, 11 are considered contestable. The most likely first seat would come from West Virginia. Then there’s Montana, where if the Republicans win there, they could pick up two seats, which would guarantee them a majority in the Senate, regardless of who wins the presidential election. Seven other seats Democrats must defend are in Michigan, Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Maryland.
On the other hand, Democrats’ hopes would lie in a decidedly Republican state like Texas. There, polls show that Senate Republican Ted Cruz has losing numbers against Democrat Colin Allred. The bet is so strong that the Democrats have invested millions in this campaign.
In Florida, another red state, there is also a possibility with the seat of Senator Rick Scott. Finally, Nebraska could also help Democrats.
