It presents three scenarios: the automotive industry can lose up to a million jobs in ten years in ten years if the current EU climate rules are weakened. About three million Europeans are currently working in the automotive industry.
The second scenario: to remain climatic goals, but are not supported by additional measures, according to T&E, 15 percent of jobs are lost.
However, if the EU strengthens the position of the European automobile industry in addition to the rules of the climate, in 2035 it is only four percent less than the current ones.
The main statements are understandable, says the researcher
For calculation, the authors of the study suggest that without changing the policy, the development of the forecast sector of the supplier of industry services Globaldata, which intensively observes the development of the automotive industry market. The second script is based on Globaldata calculations, in which about 15 percent of jobs are lost in the automotive industry by 2035.
In the case of an effective industrial policy, the automotive industry can produce at the previous maximum of 2016, but climatic rules are weakened in the low 2021 years.
According to Axel Tilman, a researcher from the Institute of Systems and Innovative Research by ISI ISI and not in a study, scenarios with data in 2016 and 2021, a researcher at the ISI system and innovative research institute, and not in a study. “Nevertheless, the main statement of the study is understandable: in order not to risk the automotive industry, the transformation to electronic mobility must be successful.”
“The success of Europe depends on the path that the EU politicians continue today,” says Julia Poliskanova, a member of T & E -ereertrate. As it was planned to resolve new combustion engines since 2035, as well as strengthening the domestic industry and demand from 2035, “the best chance that the EU should return to a higher production of cars.”
The EU would have to increase investments through state AIDS, prescribe the use of local auto parts and materials, and oblige large companies to buy an electronic version, T&E. But Co also decides2-Fleet limit values for companies, so investments in electric discs are growing. Otherwise, the demand for electric cars is too low.
Wages can also grow
The authors of the study calculated that the creation of the cost of electric vehicles in Europe can increase by 11 percent if the share of imported automobile parts decreases from 25 to 18 percent.
If the number of jobs remains approximately the same as the study simulated in the best scenario, due to the higher value added, this may mean higher wages for employees, if the corporations not only increase their profits. In addition, jobs were created in the infrastructure of the production and charging of batteries.
“Here you can create even more jobs, because jobs can also be created outside the automotive industry,” says expert Fraunhofer Thielmann.
The Union of Promotions of Claims
IG Metall does not want to evaluate the study, “But we share some research trends,” said Ralph Obermower, Union Car expert.
“We need an active industrial policy for the German and European battery production, with investment and industrial means”, as well as requirements for internal production of automobile spare parts. “And we must stimulate the demand for electrified vehicles in the sluggish European market. There is great potential, ”he said.
In the T&E study, the influence of transformation on existing factories that produces even combustions is not taken into account. “Existing places with good employment should not be under bicycles throughout the steering wheel,” therefore it requires the trade union trade union asset of Obermower.
