On the trade front, Donald Trump’s four years in power, from 2016 to 2020, were an execrable time for China, the world’s leading export power. But the personal relationship had not been bad between Xi Jinping and this man who treats in the same way a democratically elected leader or a leader of an authoritarian state that has theorized about the need to end American domination. “I had a very strong relationship with him”, Donald Trump declared in October, referring to Xi Jinping, whom he had previously described as “brilliant boy”.
When the blond president landed on the tarmac at Beijing airport in November 2017, a year after his first election, the People’s Republic of China was able to receive him with great fanfare, unlike the last visit of his predecessor, Barack Obama, who had have to climb the interior staircase of Air Force One due to the lack of a red carpet provided by the Chinese. On his tour, Donald Trump was excited to see the children waving the flags of the two nations. “Wow”The journalist from the Associated Press agency heard him exclaim. Then, in the Forbidden City, where Xi received him, the president of this young country asked his counterpart if it was true that China has five thousand years of history.
China carefully studied Donald Trump then and has continued to do so ever since. But what will Trump face now that he has likely been elected to another term? More than any other country, China knows how to seduce the excessive egos of its interlocutors, but it is also, more than any other, exposed to the risks of trade conflicts. Overseas deliveries are a key driver for its factories and jobs, with exports covering 19% of its GDP in 2023.
“Trade war”
However, during the campaign, the Mar-a-Lago golfer promised to tax 60% on all Chinese products entering American soil, a measure that would be critical at a time when Chinese growth is slowing and internal market is not present. Is it a coincidence that Chinese Communist Party leaders are meeting Nov. 4-8 to announce the magnitude of a recovery plan that isn’t due until Friday, once the U.S. election results are known?
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