CIS Estimate – September 2024
Estimated CIS votes (as % of total valid votes)
The first barometer of the CIS (Sociological Research Center) of the political course, the first estimation data after the financing agreement in Catalonia between the PSC and the ERC and the investiture of Salvador Illa, indicate that the advantage of the PSOE over the PP has increased to 4.5 points. And this is due to the fall that the center of José Félix Tezanos attributes to the PP, which has fallen 1.7 points since July, while the socialists remain in place.
The survey also shows that Vox is partly benefiting from this decline, that Sumar is recovering after falling in July and that Alvise Pérez’s platform is adding a few tenths and continuing its rise, although slowly, since it was included in the CEI estimates.
The CEI resumes its barometers after the summer holidays and indicates that the PSOE would win the general elections if they were held now with 33% of the vote, only a tenth more than a month ago. Although it is lower than some of the most optimistic estimates of the CEI, with these data the socialists would obtain a better result than in the 2023 elections (31.7%) and would enjoy a large cushion over the PP in this survey.
The popular party suffers a significant drop, of 1.7 points. It would now obtain 28.5% of the votes, compared to 30.2% in July, far from the 33.1% of the 2023 elections. This result leaves Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s party 4.5 points behind the PSOE and without the possibility for the moment of competing for first place.
Vox is taking advantage of this fall. Santiago Abascal’s party goes from 12.2% in July to 13.1% in September – above the 12.4% of the last legislative elections. Vox thus gathers a part of the voters that the CEI takes away from the PP and does not suffer a great impact from the entry of Alvise Pérez, whose party increases by two tenths and rises to 2.9%.
The CEI also brings good news for Sumar. Yolanda Díaz’s program had suffered a sharp decline in recent months due to electoral failures, particularly in Europe, and now sees its score rise from 6.6% in July to 7.8% in September. Of course, it is still very far from its result of July 2023, when it competed for third place with Vox by obtaining 12.3% of the vote.
In his case, the entry of Podemos has led to a decrease in his electoral aspirations. The party led by Ione Belarra has fallen by four tenths this month but remains at 3.6%, one of the best figures since his break with Sumar.
Already below, ERC would obtain 1.4% of the votes, a tenth more than Junts, and EH Bildu would prevail over the PNV with 1.1% against 0.9%.
The data on the transfer of votes gives the PP the most loyal electorate, since 83.9% of its voters would repeat, five tenths more than the percentage of the PSOE. Vox, for its part, retains 76.7% of its voters from 23J and loses voters in equal parts to the PP and Se Acabó la Fiesta, the party of Alvise Pérez. Sumar only manages to retain 54.7% of its voters and loses 22.8% to Podemos and 13.2% to the PP.
As for those who chose to abstain on the 23rd and would vote now, the majority do so for the PSOE, 16.4%, followed by the PP (12%) and Vox (11.6%).
Sanchez repeats as the best rated
The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, remains the highest rated politician with a score of 4.28, although the second vice-president and Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, narrows the gap somewhat and obtains a score of 4.15.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo, president of the PP, falls below 4 this month and ends up with 3.95. The leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, repeats himself as the lowest rated with a score of 2.89.
