CIS estimate – October 2024
Estimated CIS votes (as a % of total valid votes)
The PSOE continues to be the most voted force according to the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), but its advantage over the PP has been reduced over the past month. Of the four points that Pedro Sánchez’s team gained over Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s team in September, in the October Barometer they only have an advantage of 2.5 points. And the estimate of the institute led by José Félix Tezanos increases support for the PSOE and the PP, while Sumar and Vox decrease considerably.
Concretely, the CIS grants the PSOE 34% of support against 31.5% to the PP. The socialists add up the votes compared to the last study, that of September, in which the Tezanos institute gave them 33% of the votes. But the most popular rise even more – they go from 28.5% of the previous barometer to 31.5% – and manage to increase their votes by three points in a single month.
In this scenario, the PSOE would achieve a better result than in the 2023 general elections, where it reached 31.7% support, and the PP would still not achieve the victory it achieved then, when 33, 1% of Spaniards supported him.
The rise of the two major parties directly affects the fall of their respective rivals within the same ideological spectrum. Vox fell by two points and went from 13.8% of the vote in September to 11.8% in October. The far right is thus below the result it obtained in the 2023 legislative elections, where it reached 12.4% of the vote.
Sumar, for his part, fell by 1.5 points and went from 7.8% of the vote last month to 6.3% today. Thus, the left coalition would maintain its collapse compared to the last legislative elections where it was just a tenth below Vox, with 12.3% of the citizens’ votes. We can also decrease compared to the previous barometer. It goes from 3.6% of the vote in September to the current 3.3%.
The coalition imagined by Yolanda Díaz is precisely the political formation that least retains its voters, again according to the study carried out between October 1 and 11 through 4,005 interviews. Only 49% of Spaniards who supported her in the 2023 general election would vote for her again, 24.4% of those who would have voted for them would now opt for Podemos and a further 11.7% would go to the PSOE.
Voting loyalty is also collapsing at Vox. Among citizens who supported the far right in 2023, 76.7% would maintain their vote, but one in ten (10.4%) would go to the project of European ultra-MEP Alvise Pérez, Se Acabó La Fiesta (SALF). An additional 7.8% of Vox voters would now choose to support Feijóo’s PP.
The two major parties are, for the moment, those which best retain their voters. 82% of citizens who supported it a year ago would vote for the PP, even if 6% would now go for Vox. In the case of the PSOE, 80.1% of voters would remain loyal to the socialist project, although a significant number, 3.7%, would choose to go to the PP, 3.1% to Sumar and 1.1% to Vox.
The majority of citizens who chose to abstain on June 23 would still not go to the polls if new general elections were held now. But 22.5% of them would go to their polling stations to support the PSOE; 12.1%, to the PP; 8.1%, in Vox and 1.6%, in Sumar. 1.9% of abstentionists would now vote for Podemos and 1.7% for the SALF.
