“This year’s assessment of looming health threats from climate inaction reveals the most worrying findings from our eight years of monitoring. » The group of scientists who have prepared the report year after year since 2015 Lancet Countdown to monitor the links between health and climate change warn that once again, records have been broken. For the worse. Of the 15 indicators that monitor hazards, exposures and impacts, a dozen reached the highest numbers ever.
This rate is greater than the speed at which humans adapt and avoid the most harmful effects. “Despite years of monitoring that have revealed imminent health threats from climate inaction, the health risks facing the population have been exacerbated by years of delayed adaptation, leaving people unprotected against the growing threats of change climate”, say the researchers.
By the numbers: 68% of countries reported high or very high implementation of legally mandated health emergency management capacities in 2023, of which only 11% were low development index (HDI) countries; and only 35% have early warning systems for heat-related illnesses. “Lack of financial resources” was identified as a “major barrier” to adaptation. Progress is being made little by little: 50 countries declared at the end of 2023 to have formally assessed their health vulnerabilities and their adaptation needs compared to 11 the previous year; and the territories with a National Health Adaptation Plan (HNAP) increased from 4 in 2022 to 43 in 2023.
The climate crisis “is a health crisis” and “no region is spared”, recalled Dr Tedros Adhanom, director general of the World Health Organization (WHO), who worked alongside 122 experts from 57 academic institutions and other organizations. the United Nations in the annual report.
Affects sleep
There is consensus that “it is essential to place population health at the center of climate change policymaking.” We just need to review these indicators: heat-related mortality among those over 65 has increased by 167% compared to the 1990s – 102 points more than expected without the rise in temperatures; and exposure to many degrees increasingly affects physical activity and sleep quality. People who played sports were at 27% higher risk of heat stress than three decades ago and lost 6% more hours of sleep due to the effects of heat on sleep than average between 1986 and 2005 .
Exposure to heat is already affecting work productivity: 512 million potential work hours were lost in 2023
In contrast, sand and dust storms favored by hotter, drier weather conditions caused a 31% increase in the number of people exposed to “dangerously high concentrations of airborne particles.” Added to this are changes in rainfall patterns and increases in temperatures which constitute fertile ground for the transmission of infectious diseases such as dengue fever, malaria, West Nile virus or vibriosis. The risk of contagion by mosquitoes carrying dengue fever –Aedes albopictus And Aedes aegypti have increased by 46% and 11% respectively over the past decade, compared to the 1950s. In fact, by 2023, a record of more than five million dengue cases has been broken in more than 80 territories, some of which were not previously affected.
The impacts of extreme weather also have an effect on work. Exposure to heat is already affecting work productivity: “512 million potential work hours were lost in 2023,” according to the report, “the equivalent of $835 billion in potential lost income.” The situation particularly affects the most disadvantaged communities, where these impacts “further reduce their ability to cope and recover from the effects of climate change,” note the scientists.
Despite record damage recorded in report, scientists highlight ‘some reasons for cautious optimism’: Deaths from fossil fuel-derived air pollution fell by almost 7%, from 2.25 million in 2016 to 2.09 million in 2021. “59% of this decline was due to efforts to reduce pollution from coal burning, demonstrating the potential of phasing out coal to save lives.
Further away from the Paris Agreement
At the same time, the report said, global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions were 1% higher than in 2022. And that’s not all: the proportion of fossil fuels in the global energy system has increased for the first time in a decade in 2021 (80.3% of all energy compared to 80.1% in 2020). “Even if climate action is constrained by lack of financing, investments in fossil fuels still attracted 36.6% of global energy investments in 2023, with many governments also increasing explicit subsidies for fossil fuels in response to the increase in energy prices following the Russian invasion of the United States. Ukraine,” the report warns.
Scientists warn that, “backed by record profits,” the world’s 114 largest oil and gas companies have increased their planned levels of fossil fuel production from 2023, “which would lead to their emissions exceeding 59 % levels compatible with a warming of 1.5°C”. 2030, and a staggering 189% in 2040.”
Between 2016 and 2022, nearly 182 million hectares of forests were destroyed, “the equivalent of 5% of the world’s forest cover, thereby reducing the planet’s natural capacity to capture carbon dioxide”.
Compliance with the Paris Agreement, with these figures, is increasingly distant. The worst situation is that of 33 of these companies which could exceed their greenhouse gas emissions by more than 300% within 15 years. “The relentless expansion of fossil fuels and record emissions – scientists point out – are aggravating these dangerous health effects and threaten to reverse the limited progress made so far and make a healthy future even more inaccessible. »
This edition of Lancet Countdown adds new data that directly measures the impact on the ecosystem. It is estimated that between 2016 – the date of entry into force of the Paris Agreement – and 2022, nearly 182 million hectares of forests have been destroyed “which is equivalent to 5% of global forest cover, thus decreasing the planet’s natural capacity to capture carbon dioxide. “. The largest losses were recorded in Russia (35.8 million hectares), the United States and Canada (nearly 15 million hectares in each country).
On November 11, the new COP29 begins in Azerbaijan. An opportunity for countries to engage “in more ambitious climate action that not only protects the planet, but also improves health,” said Dr. John-Arne Røttingen, director of the Wellcome organization, which is collaborating in the preparation. of the report.
