The challenge will last for centuries. Coastal cities are doomed to suffer from rising sea levels, a gradual and inevitable phenomenon as long as global average temperatures remain above pre-industrial levels. Hence the vital challenge of adapting to this great change. On August 26, the review Natural Cities published an extensive article in which researchers from different institutes and universities analyse the results of 683 studies on the adaptation policies of 199 cities located near the sea or in estuaries around the world. According to them, their preparation for this great challenge is “quite slow, limited in scope and not transformative”. “Adaptation measures are designed primarily based on past and current patterns, rather than future patterns”summary.
This comprehensive review of the scientific literature accurately describes the failures in adaptation to global warming, one of the most neglected and yet most crucial areas of climate policy. At the end of the 21st centurymy In the 21st century, coastal cities must prepare for a sea level rise of between 0.44 and 1 metre, depending on the different scenarios, including intermediate and very high greenhouse gas emissions, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
A very long-term evolution still subject to great unknowns (Antarctic reaction, etc.) and which will expose populations to multiple risks (floods, more deadly cyclones, etc.). “Most adaptations are not based on a deep consideration – let alone quantified scenarios – of the future evolution of the exposure and vulnerability of people, infrastructure and ecosystems. (…) This leads to biased assumptions about risks.”the authors continue.
Adaptation influenced by standard of living.
In its latest report, the IPCC also highlighted that the implementation of adaptation in coastal cities was “limited” AND “ based mainly on protection works” when she should “adapt to different city archetypes”. “Even if we can slow it down by reducing our emissions, we can’t stop sea level rise.specifies Gonéri Le Cozannet, researcher at the Office of Geological and Mining Research and adaptation specialist. So we have to be able to plan ahead because large infrastructure works can take decades, as in Venice, but also think about local situations because we don’t adapt a port in the same way as a city along the route. »
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