No all raw materials They found the reasons for the price rises so far this year to be a combination of weak activity in China, the world’s biggest consumer and producer, and high interest rates imposed in the West to stop inflation. AND Photography is unlikely to change for the rest of 2024. The forecasts collected by the experts anticipate that of the first twenty basic products Only one will see a real increase in prices in the fourth quarter of the year compared to current levels. The others will remain unchanged or even continue their downward trend.
Among those expected to recover part of what was lost during the year are the main so-called soft commodities: cereals, food and fibers. However, none of them would close the fourth quarter of the year with an average price higher than that observed at the beginning of 2024, according to the market consensus collected. Bloomberg. And the expected gains over the next four months would not exceed 2.5%, even for soybeans, wheat or corn, which have lost more than 10% so far this year. Brent crude lost $72 at the end of the week, which also puts it in the middle of the forecast for the rest of the year. In fact, Only liquefied natural gas is out of average of the main raw materials.
After eight months of 15% drop in U.S. gas prices, the price of gasoline will experience a price rebound of up to 40%according to market expectations. The Henry Hub, which oil companies often use as a benchmark, would reach an average price of $2.98 per million British metric units in the last quarter of the year. As the winter season approaches, states are increasing their purchases to supplement their reserves. In fact, European gas prices (the Dutch TTF) are already reflecting a price rebound that is widening the gap with the American benchmark. However, European reserves are at 92.6% of their capacity, according to data from the European Gas Infrastructure (GIE).
All metals are in the middle of the table, unchanged in the short term compared to this week’s closing prices. Some, such as gold, silver or tin, are up 20% in the year. However, its trajectory would stagnate until 2025. gold, which is trading in the area of historical highs Due to its safe haven status, it would close the year at $2,515 per ounce, silver at $19.45 and tin listed on the London Stock Exchange (LME) would be around $30,500 per tonne.
Industrial metals are trading with little movement so far. Copper to Rise Less Than 5% in 2024, Reaching $9,000 Areaafter hitting record highs in May at 10,889. But prices have since fallen. Global manufacturing sentiment through August shows slowing orders in China and much of the developed world tied to the Asian giant’s economy, such as Germany. That’s translating into weaker manufacturing PMIs that could remain weak in the coming months, Citi said. “This will prevent a significant and imminent rise in metal prices on the back of prospects for a recovery in cyclical demand,” said investment banking analyst Tom Mulqueen.
But it is not only the weakness of the Chinese economy that is weighing on the expected evolution of industrial raw material prices. The outcome of the November elections in the United States could also condition the evolution of the price of copper, aluminum or nickel. For example, it is assumed that a Donald Trump victory would be linked to an increase in customs duties that could lead to a new trade war with China. In other words, a new slowdown in exports.
China not only uses less metals, but also less fuel, either because of its weakened economy or the rise of electric vehicles. The fight that the cartel of oil exporting countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia (OPEC+), have waged against the price of oil is now leading to the Brent crude oil at $72 per barrel. Crude oil listed in Europe has fallen by almost 7.5% this year and could fall further, according to experts’ expectations for the end of 2024. In fact, prices are expected to average less than $72 for the whole of 2024.
The main reason why prices continue to fall is that a demand recovery for the latter part of the year. On the other hand, OPEC+ recently decided to extend its production cut program (which ended in October) in the hope of boosting prices, which it has barely achieved so far.
He to rally of the basic products This year it’s cocoa. The price of cereals has increased by 120% since January 1st due to this year’s poor harvest, which reached cocoa prices up to $9,866 per metric ton. However, and although the outlook for short-term shortages remains, the market consensus which reflects Bloomberg It is expected to be the product that will experience the biggest declines by the end of the year, by 3.4% to $6,705 on average in the fourth quarter.
