COP29 opens in a geopolitical climate weighed down by Trump’s election and the economic situation

It was risky, it’s getting dangerous. the 29th^my The world climate conference (COP29), organized from November 11 to 22 in Baku (Azerbaijan), has already had to overcome numerous difficulties: a dramatic geopolitical context with the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon; a bleak economic situation, while negotiators must address the issue of financial aid to developing countries; a host country, invisible on the scene of climate diplomacy and among the main exporters of fossil fuels, the main cause of warming… So many obstacles to climate action, despite the catastrophes that affect all regions of the world , including very recently Spain, where floods caused More than 220 dead, according to the latest reports.

On November 6, the COP ran into a major new obstacle: the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States. The climate-skeptic Republican promised to once again withdraw the country from the Paris climate agreement, as he had already done in 2017 (the United States had reestablished it, in 2021, under Joe Biden). It plans to stop the energy transition and massively reactivate the production of fossil fuels. Enough to definitively bury the objective of limiting warming to + 1.5°C, while the United States is the first historical polluter and the second emitter of greenhouse gases.

The billionaire will not be inaugurated until January 2025, so it will continue to be the Biden administration that will lead US negotiations in Baku. Despite everything, the shock wave of the elections risks curbing the ambition of other countries. “From now on, Baku will be a success if we all remain united to take climate action and if there is a message from the COP reiterating adherence to the Paris agreement”estimates Laurence Tubiana, architect of the international treaty, sealed in 2015.

However, multilateral climate mobilization is not guaranteed, while the Azerbaijan conference, a financial COP, is considered secondary, sandwiched between COP28 in Dubai (United Arab Emirates), during which states made commitments for the first time to a transition away from fossil fuels, and the COP30 in Belem (Brazil), in November 2025, which will be crucial, because it will constitute a test of credibility for the ten years of the Paris agreement.

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