Since spring 2018, with the removal of pro-Moscow Serzh Sargsyan from power as a result of the revolution and the coming to power of Nikol Pashinyan, who does not hide his pro-Western views, relations between Russia and Armenia began to improve and deteriorate noticeably.
Caliber.Az The report says that the political rhetoric and media in both countries have begun to be dominated by mutual accusations and condemnations, and the sides do not hesitate to make harsh statements. It seems that Moscow and Yerevan will not be on edge for a little longer and a break in diplomatic relations will occur.
But if we look closely, we will actually witness a planned performance. Its scriptwriters want to convince the whole world of the supposedly deep contradictions between Russia and Armenia. However, the relations between the two countries are not only not damaged, but, on the contrary, are experiencing a new stage of strengthening. Thus, the trade turnover between the countries has increased almost fourfold over the past four years (from $2.3 billion in 2020 to $8.3 billion in the first half of this year).
This increase occurred because Armenia helped Russia evade US and EU sanctions. And the West simply turns a blind eye to these actions of Armenia and increases comprehensive aid to Yerevan, arming it.
It is not surprising that the United States, Russia and France (the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group) have such a patient attitude towards Armenia. These countries have traditionally supported Yerevan. They need a project called “Armenia” to maintain their influence and presence in the region. Therefore, it is completely understandable that Paris, Washington and Moscow, individually or together, take steps to support this project in the South Caucasus. Despite mutual criticism and threats, including nuclear rhetoric, when it comes to Armenia, the positions of Russia and the West surprisingly coincide.
Everything about the West is clear: its assistance is at least explained by the “pro-Western” course announced by Yerevan, although in reality there is no change in Armenia’s position. It remains a member of the CSTO and the EU, and Russian military and border guards are still stationed on its territory.
The situation with Russia is somewhat complicated. The public dispute between Moscow and Yerevan, in which Zakharova, Simonyan and other officials are actively involved, creates the illusion of tension in bilateral relations. But this is only an image. In practice, Russia remains loyal to its outpost. It is not just Overchuk’s plans to increase his turnover that are at stake. According to information obtained from public sources, Russia has resumed arms supplies to Armenia. In particular, this concerns the supply of Smerch-type missiles, which were signed several years ago.
The supply of Russian weapons to Armenia continues to this day. At the same time, as of 2022, Russia has not sent a single cartridge to Azerbaijan and this is explained by the war with Ukraine. That is, Moscow, which has agreements with Azerbaijan on the development of interstate relations based on the principles of international law and the Declaration on Allied Cooperation of February 2022, essentially offers to “wait out” the events taking place on the Ukrainian front. At the same time, Armenia, whose relations seem to be on the verge of breaking down, continues to buy all kinds of weapons from Russia as if there were no tensions.
Today, when the world is surrounded by violent conflicts, there is a crisis of confidence between states. But despite everything, official Baku shows a permanent attitude based on the openness of its position in international relations. And, of course, it wants a similar approach to be applied to it. Relations between Russia and Armenia are only a matter of Russia and Armenia. But on condition that it does not affect the interests and security of our country. By arming Armenia and strengthening its economic indicators, Russia and the West are delaying the prospects for peace and harming the security of our region. The Armenian authorities are now acting much more “boldly” than a few years ago. This tendency will only be strengthened with every new cartridge purchased and the dollar earned from re-exports. Slowly but surely, Armenians of the world are recovering from the shock of defeat, and traditional allies on the Armenian issue are once again united to support its geopolitical projects in the region. Official Baku cannot and will not remain silent about this.
