An authoritarian drift is sweeping across the democratic world, in a sort of march that can be triumphant. As with any threat, the question arises as to where the dangers may materialize. He who is prepared absorbs blows better. The answer is not simple, because involution does not develop in the same way everywhere. But, beyond the nuances or particularities, we can observe a common trait: the pillars of representative democracy could be cracking. They begin to be questioned, sometimes head-on.
Twenty years ago, authoritarian proclamations were considered rather anecdotal in democracies. They were harmless exoticisms, located on the fringes of the political system. But these rarities could now become the majority. And forgotten fears resurface. In the most pessimistic visions, we remember black and white documentaries full of disturbing images, martially raised arms, furious totalitarian harangues, the suffering of victims of all kinds. Rather, more balanced perspectives warn us against possible transformations of the democratic system that could make it unrecognizable, like a boxer with a swollen face after having been mercilessly shaken.
After the intense upheavals of the 20th century, it seemed that representative democracy had established itself in much of the world as a consolidated, uncontested and enviably healthy form of government. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama published an influential essay in which he argued that humanity’s ideological evolution had ended and asserted that Western democracy would become universal as the definitive form of human government. The free world had triumphed. Although Fukuyama’s “end of history” theses have sparked heated debate, the truth is that they have enjoyed considerable academic acceptance. The democratic system appears to be an irreversible conquest. This great victory of civilization would lead to many other achievements in the field of human rights.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, democracy became the dominant political system in the world. In the words of Yascha Mounk, the democratic system “seemed unshakable in North America and Western Europe, and was taking root by leaps and bounds in the previously autocratic countries of Eastern Europe and South America, in more than making very good progress.” nations spread across Asia and Africa.
In its report on 2023, Freedom House underlines that very significant setbacks have been observed at the international level in democratic matters, which add to the progressive and accelerated deterioration of the last two decades.
However, at the turn of the century, everything begins to become complicated, because happiness is quickly accompanied by failures. In recent years, quite serious symptoms of democratic backsliding have appeared. In its report on 2023, Freedom House underlines that very significant setbacks have been observed at the international level in democratic matters, which add to the progressive and accelerated deterioration of the last two decades. This entity highlights that in 2023 political rights and civil liberties have declined in 52 countries. This situation contrasts with what happened from 1974 to the beginning of the 21st century, since then there has been a steady progression of democracy around the world, according to annual assessments by Freedom House.
The new push for autocracy is worrying. These setbacks in recent years imply a real democratic recession, with a multiplication of dictatorships and a sudden stop in the integration of new democracies. And, furthermore, with authoritarian regressions in many democracies or with a decline in democratic quality in the most advanced societies. In countries that have suffered regression and maintain democratic structures, we observe phenomena such as violation of the separation of powers, harassment of the media, attacks on the rights of minorities and attacks on the electoral system to ensure re-election.
The worrying shocks of the last decade require deep reflection. The emergence of Trumpism in the United States represents a phenomenon that shocked international experts, due to its particular symbolism, in the most powerful state on the planet, in a country that had no precedent of authoritarian governments . In a very different area, the possibilities for democratic opening in Russia have evaporated following the growing authoritarianism of the Putin regime.
Signs of deterioration have appeared all over the world. Jair Bolsonaro’s rise to power in Brazil was a turbulent experience, full of despotic gestures, homophobic insults and practices contrary to the values of democratic institutions. Turkey has made commendable progress towards a democratic society, even with the hope of joining the European Union, but the successive mandates of Recep Tayyip Erdogan have made it an openly authoritarian state. In the United Kingdom, the most surprising thing about Brexit was that the popular decision was adopted mainly on the basis of the xenophobic proclamations of the British far right, which prevailed on the traditional party line.
Even in countries like Germany, where it was unthinkable that a broad far right could express itself again, the rise of conservative national populism is evident. »
In Hungary and Poland, policies of withdrawal were undertaken, with vigorous attacks on the separation of powers, political pluralism and the rights of the people. At present, unknowns remain about the evolution of the democratic system in Italy or Argentina, starting with the new radical right governments of Giorgia Meloni and Javier Milei. Even in countries like Germany, where it was unthinkable that a broad far right could express itself again, the rise of conservative national populism is evident. Very tellingly, the largest political organization in the world is the Indian People’s Party, currently in power, with radical right-wing positions contrary to minority rights.
In all countries of the European Union there has been a notable increase in support for the far right, which has achieved a significant presence in almost all parliaments, allowing it to participate in many governments. The result of the European elections in June 2024 once again confirms the rise of ultraconservative parties.
On the other hand, a little over five years ago, international experts still claimed that the disastrous memory of the Franco regime explained the significant absence of the far right in Spain. The reality that occurred forced them to rethink their premises. In fact, the debate is currently very different: the relevant question is whether similar processes of democratic involution can develop in Spain. Questions even arise as to whether democracy is under threat in our country.
It is important to rule out from the outset the possibility of an old-fashioned coup d’état. Our armed forces have been democratized and there is no element of risk from the military domain. But we should not ignore movements of social, economic and political reconfiguration such as those that have recently occurred elsewhere. In an increasingly interconnected world, there are common patterns that are reproduced in the most varied places.
Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt have clarified that in contemporary times, democracies do not die at the hands of armed generals, but rather at the hands of elected leaders who succeed in overturning the process that brought them to power. According to these authors, the main risk of dismantling democratic systems does not lie in coups d’état executed in the classic manner, but in the dynamics of authoritarian demolition from within. The triumphant autocrats in the elections maintain a semblance of democracy, but they eviscerate it to the point of emptying it of its content. As Ignacio Sánchez-Cuenca warns, authoritarian drift “occurs gradually, not through a questioning of the founding principles of democracy, but through a slow dismantling of its institutional rules and practices.” The critical situations in certain countries alert us to threats to which we must pay our full attention.
“The rise of authoritarian discourses occurs when they are assimilated, sometimes enthusiastically, by sectors of citizens who previously did not question democratic values.”
The rise of authoritarian discourses occurs when they are assimilated, sometimes with enthusiasm, by sectors of citizens who previously did not question democratic values. Twenty years ago, perceptions questioning the future of democracy were in the minority. Maybe something is starting to change.
After World War II, there was for decades a general consensus in the Western world in favor of the democratic system. It was based on an intense cultural identification with its rules and the absence of meaningful alternatives to the contrary. However, Yascha Mounk’s data analysis shows that in recent years, in many countries, the percentage of people who do not consider it essential to live in a democratically governed country has increased. These percentages are still in the minority, but are increasing dangerously. And it is worrying to note that they are higher in the youngest age groups.
Pluralist democracy is no longer so incontestable. Since the digital revolution, we have been building our societies on new foundations, of uncertain solidity, which can have a very significant impact on the typology of our political system. Everything is accelerating at the viral speed of the Internet. We must be attentive to these transformations: as Saint-Exupéry knew, the future cannot be guessed, but it can be agreed to.
