Despite expectations, the country is once again underwater.

The scene, photographed on the morning of August 27 in what remains of Chotbora village in Jonglei state in northern South Sudan and then shared on social media, encapsulates in images the anguish of the victims. Wrapped in a blanket, a grandmother lies prostrate on a makeshift raft, surrounded by dozens of destitute women and children.

Under pressure from the Zeraf River, a tributary of the Nile, the dam broke overnight, covering their village with more than a metre of water. More than 6,000 people had to evacuate. By canoe for the lucky ones, floating on piles of plants for the others, they headed towards the town of Old Fangak, protected by dams but also threatened by water.

For the sixth consecutive year, South Sudan is facing devastating floods, caused by overflowing rivers and heavy rains. According to the UN, 735,000 people are affected in 38 of the country’s 78 counties and 65,000 are already displaced. While the floods are expected to peak in October, local authorities, residents and humanitarian actors are trying to do everything they can to avoid the worst.

The United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) has allocated $10 million and the South Sudan Humanitarian Fund (SSHF) has released another $5 million for “provide life-saving assistance (shelter, water, sanitation, hygiene and health services) to communities already recovering from the compounding impacts of recurrent flooding, severe food insecurity, mass displacement and ongoing conflict in neighbouring Sudan”reports the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

Record water level in Lake Victoria

Country “the most vulnerable to climate change » and who “lacks the greatest coping skills” According to a 2023 World Bank report, South Sudan, crossed by numerous rivers, ranks “Seventh in the world in terms of proportion of the country’s total population exposed to river flooding.” It is in particular the two million inhabitants of the South, the largest wetland in Africa that extends to the Nile floodplain, who bear the brunt of climate change.

The region could become uninhabitable and South Sudan could be left “The first example of a massive population permanently displaced by climate change. » as some experts suggest. Between 2020 and 2022, around 1.5 million South Sudanese were displaced by floods. And by the end of 2023, flood predictions for 2024 were alarming. The record level of Lake Victoria, coupled with forecasts of exceptional rainfall caused by the El Niño phenomenon and the Indian Ocean Dipole, have created the conditions for another devastating rainy season.

On May 16, Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Pal Mai Deng sounded the alarm: the water level of Lake Victoria had risen to 13.6 metres, a record high in 128 years. “Due to this high water level, the amounts of water flowing into the Jinja Dam in Uganda are enormous.he then warned. The dam’s retention capacity is exceeded and the Ugandan government is forced to release a huge amount of water, 2,600 meters³ a second downriver, towards South Sudan »According to forecasts, up to 3.3 million people could be affected by flooding by the end of the year.

For an NGO like Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), which has fourteen projects in South Sudan, including some in the heart of the Sudd, predicting the magnitude of flooding is crucial. Because “If there is consensus at the national level, it is at the local level where things get complicated,” “In particular, in Old Fangak, a town in Jonglei that became an island in 2020 and where MSF runs a hospital, the organisation mobilised experts from its climate change unit and was able to sound the alarm early enough to prevent the worst.

A predictable disaster

A geographic information systems (GIS) specialist was sent to the site in May and meters were installed throughout the city. “assess the threat of rising water and the state of the dams.” “Some days in July the water rose 5 cm a day, it was a race against time.”The humanitarian worker said: Based on the data collected and the cartographic modelling carried out, the UN launched an emergency intervention from Bor, the regional capital, on 21 August.

Tons of material were sent to support the efforts of some 2,000 young people from Old Fangak, mobilized to reinforce the dam with their own hands. “Without the GIS and the climate change unit, we would not have been able to sound the alarm so effectively and the city would probably have been submerged,” welcomes Quentin Blanchet today.

The fighting, however, will last for weeks. Further south, the “rural dam” 93 km long, protecting areas north of Bor, along the Nile, “It has broken in several places in recent weeks,” “The World Food Programme (WFP) urgently sent four excavators to reinforce this dam, as well as sandbags, and will support around 800 young people to help with the work,” explains Mading Akueth, director of humanitarian affairs for the local government. But this is not enough, the current is very strong, the water continues to penetrate the ground”precise. For its part, the PAM highlights “logistical challenges” installed for the transport of “heavy machinery”Roads have become virtually impassable in Jonglei.

Faced with a predictable disaster, some humanitarian actors are trying to anticipate the emergency. The German NGO Welthungerlife is thus carrying out humanitarian distributions for populations located in risk areas, in particular in Panyijiar County, in Unity State. Even if they are not affected, they will be ” probably “and this “new approach” aims to “reduce the needs and the number of victims once the disaster occurs,” explains Sofia Minetto, communications officer for the NGO in South Sudan.“Less than 10% of humanitarian funding is devoted to preparedness and anticipation”he laments.

With the rise in water levels expected to continue in the coming weeks, other factors besides the weather are at play: the new roads built at great expense by the South Sudanese government, such as the Juba-Rumbek highway, seem to be good news rather than bad news. In Rumbek East County, the town of Aduel was completely submerged on 4 September after the Naam River burst its banks.

“This year the flooding is significant, but the water has been blocked by the new road, which has no sewers” cross roads and waterways, says County Commissioner Mangar Machuol. Backhoes were urgently sent in to create a drainage system and allow the water to drain away.. Alone, the official laments, “Most of the houses were destroyed and residents fled.”