In a world marked by the return of war and rivalries between states, what else can diplomacy do? The questioning of the international system established after the Second World War by emerging countries and especially by these authoritarian neo-empires such as Russia and China is forcing it to reinvent itself. A challenge for France, which wants to make its unique voice heard, one that has often become inaudible. Interview with Michel Duclos, former ambassador and now geopolitical advisor at the Montaigne Institute.
The UN General Assembly, which opened on September 10, is opposed by many heads of state, even if Emmanuel Macron has finally travelled to New York, unlike last year. Is the paralysis of the organisation, in particular of the Security Council, a sign of unrest in the world?
In the history of the United Nations, what you call paralysis was the norm during the four decades of the Cold War. [1945-1989]. The active role played by the Security Council, as it was known for just over ten years after the collapse of the USSR in 1991, was indeed an exception. However, Russia now seems to be openly taking advantage of the decline of the Security Council, as part of a challenge to the international system established after the Second World War. Its model, basically, is not a global direction Russia-China – the United States, and perhaps India – the French and the British, the Europeans in general, going out of history? For its part, China is torn between two options: dominating the existing multilateral system or, with its clients, creating a counter-system opposed to the United Nations. In general, the world is much more fragmented than before. The United Nations is therefore a battlefield, but also the last framework in which divided nations can still engage in dialogue.
Does this general confrontation complicate the situation?
Until the 1990s, the confrontation between two sides – East and West – dominated the scene, with the non-aligned content to balance the numbers. Today, it is more complicated and confusing. Most countries in the South have condemned the Russian intervention in Ukraine, but refuse to join Western sanctions, with a decisive impact on the conflict. The rise of middle powers, mainly from the South (India, Brazil, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, etc.), makes the situation fluid. These new kingmakers are certainly divided among themselves. An informal organisation like BRICS+, which now brings together ten emerging countries, is not a problem. [le Brésil, la Russie, l’Inde, la Chine, l’Afrique du Sud, l’Egypte, les Emirats arabes unis, l’Arabie saoudite, l’Ethiopie et l’Iran]remains very heterogeneous. However, many of these countries are united around two strong points: distrust of the West and, more recently, the satisfaction of sitting at the table of the Emperor of China. These are the two cements of the BRICS+ today.
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