The content of the not yet agreed points of the agreement “On the establishment of peace and interstate relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan” was revealed earlier this week by the director of the Center for Analysis of International Relations of Baku (CAMO, financed by the government of Azerbaijan) Farid Shafiev.
Yerevan represented by the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Vahan Kostanian Last Thursday he avoided confirming the version presented by an Azerbaijani expert about the divergence of positions of the parties on the draft peace treaty. However, there was no refutation either.
According to the statements of Armenian officials, in the text of the agreement there remain “one or two” phrases on which disagreements remain, and as soon as they are removed, we can talk about completing the negotiations and signing a bilateral document. At the same time, having reported in parliament on October 31 on “one or two” points on which an agreement cannot yet be reached, the head of the Armenian Foreign Ministry Ararat Mirzoyan He expressed “cautious optimism” about the possibility of reaching a compromise.
Former Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian he spoke of sixteen treaty articles fully agreed and three that were subject to further agreement.
Shafiyev claims that the latter refer to the withdrawal of European observers stationed within the framework of the EU mandate on the territory of Armenia since February 20, 2023 from the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the exclusion from international legal disputes between Azerbaijan and Armenia. According to him, the third point of lack of coordination concerns the issue of amending the Constitution of Armenia, which Baku insists on, pointing out the presence of “territorial claims” against Azerbaijan in the Basic Law of the neighboring country.
Meanwhile, Deputy Minister Kostanyan stated that “Armenia is not negotiating with Azerbaijan on changing (its) Constitution.”
Regarding the first two uncoordinated points indicated by the head of TsAMO in the text of the draft agreement, the reaction of a high-ranking Armenian diplomat, expressed at the request of journalists, was less categorical and very “simplified”:
“Given that negotiations are currently ongoing, I do not think it is correct to fully disclose what is being discussed. But yes, as I already said, there are points that have not been agreed and the discussions on those (points of the agreement) must continue.”
Kostanyan further responded to a clarifying question from media representatives on whether it would be acceptable for Armenia to withdraw EU observers from its territory if an agreement is signed.
“At the moment, although we have an undivided border with the Republic of Azerbaijan, although there are problems, the Republic of Armenia believes that the participation of EU observers on the interstate border between Armenia and Azerbaijan is important to ensure security and stability “.
Referring to the issue of disputes between Yerevan and Baku in international courts, the deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked to “look at this through the prism of the general process and general logic” of the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
“There are also many important issues for the Republic of Armenia, including humanitarian ones, that must be resolved,” – he added.
Another issue that, as can be assumed, Azerbaijani negotiators are trying to weave into the fabric of a bilateral agreement before signing a peace treaty is the “demilitarization” of Armenia. Yerevan previously proposed a series of initiatives to establish confidence-building measures on the two republics’ border and allay Baku’s fears about Armenia’s “revanchist” aspirations in the future. Thus, ideas were proposed to create arms control mechanisms and joint investigations into ceasefire violations, which were actually ignored by Azerbaijan.
The desirability of “disarmament” of Armenia was previously noted by officials in Baku, for example, the assistant to the president of Azerbaijan, head of the foreign policy department of the presidential administration. Hikmet Hajiyev.
“Armenia’s military development must be responsible and proportional. For example, Yerevan can again attack Azerbaijani cities with long-range missiles and artillery systems that it receives from France. The best solution for Armenia would be neutrality and not military alliances that threaten the security of Azerbaijan… The militarization of Armenia and, therefore, the support for its revanchist aspirations does not contribute to peace.” – said a representative of the presidential administration of Azerbaijan in an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica published at the end of September this year.
The only reliable guarantee of sustainable peace in the region is the “demilitarization” of Armenia, Farid Shafiev reiterated.
“We hear arguments that a peace treaty cannot guarantee sustainable security. This argument is based on the inability of the parties to the Budapest Memorandum (signed on December 5, 1994 by Russia, the United States, Great Britain and Ukraine). ed.), protect the territorial integrity of Ukraine, despite their written obligations. Therefore, the only guarantee of peace is obvious: Armenia’s military capabilities must be limited; In other words, demilitarization must be carried out. Economic cooperation can add new elements of security in the South Caucasus, but there is a long way to go to achieve it. Unfortunately, we are witnessing numerous dividing lines drawn by international actors in the region.” – stated the Azerbaijani expert.
The signs of the possibility of revenge on the part of Armenia fit into the general logic of Azerbaijani leaders for the consolidation of long-term peace in the region: Baku has repeatedly made clear that it seeks “to make peace not with Pashinyan , but with Armenia.” and thus ensure against a possible rise to power in the neighboring country of “revanchists” who will try to “return Karabakh.”
Shafiyev also addressed the issue of the return of Armenians to Karabakh.
“We do not deny the right of Armenians to return to Karabakh, but there are two important conditions. First, Armenians must accept Azerbaijani citizenship and respect its laws. Secondly, only those who were born in Karabakh and did not participate in war crimes against Azerbaijan can be allowed to return.” – he emphasized.
The expert also indicated that Azerbaijan intends to consider this issue within the “legal context to eliminate discrimination and ethnic racism.” At the same time, “it is important to take into account the right of Azerbaijanis to return to Armenia.”
Shafiyev adapted his assessments to expectations of a possible breakthrough in the peace process on the eve of the opening in Baku of the largest international forum for him since the end of the 44-day war in Karabakh in the fall of 2020: the 29th session of the the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29). However, judging by the signals coming from Azerbaijan’s capital from politicians and analysts close to the government, such a breakthrough seems increasingly unlikely. The endless stream of preconditions and “urgent wishes” presented by Azerbaijan to Armenia before concluding peace completely dilutes even Yerevan’s cautious optimism.
There is still no clarity on the issue of Armenia’s participation in this summit. After receiving an invitation from Baku, which expressed its willingness to host a representative of a neighboring country “at any level” from November 11 to 22 (the date of COP29), Armenian leaders continue to remain silent. And this, from our point of view, confirms that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has no serious reasons to expect the quick signing of an agreement of historical importance.
