In central speech in London last month, General Secretary of NATO, Mark Rottte confirmed the public warning, at least three times this year: the Western alliance is significantly lagging behind Moscow in the production of ammunition.
“As for ammunition, Russia produces in three months what NATO produces in a year,” Ruth said on June 10, adding that Putin’s military car “accelerates, does not slow down”.
Rutte, who became the head of a military alliance in October last year, continued to repeat the same warning.
“Let me repeat it again. NATO economy is 25 times higher than the Russian economy. These are 50 trillions (dollars), and the Russian economy is two trillions. This economy in two trillion dollars produces four times more ammunition than it.
We checked its statements based on available items. We found that, although the production of Moscow ammunition may have been about four times more than in the NATO alliance in 2024, there is evidence that this gap could be closed.
What do we know about the ability to make ammunition of Russia?
Information about the military production facilities of Moscow is confidential. Expert assessments are based on statements by officials, information leaks and historical data.
We can confidently say that Moscow sharply increased its ammunition since it began its complete invasion of Ukraine in 2022, surpassing its Western colleagues.
Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service appreciates The fact that Russia produced or rebuilt 400,000 artillery missiles in 2022, multiplying its production more than once to produce 4.5 million missiles in 2024.
With the same conclusion, he achieved and achieved analysis Bain & Company Consulting Company for Sky News in May 2024, in which, according to estimates, the total number of missiles that will be produced or rebuilt in 2024 will be 4.5 million missiles.
Russia mainly produces 122 and 152 -mm artillery missiles, while the NATO model has a slightly larger diameter of 155 mm and is mainly used in the western catwalk systems, for example, which are provided by allies in Kyiv.
According to the Bain & Company analysis, the 152 -mm project of Moscow is also about four times cheaper, from $ 1,000 (860 euros) to the projectile, compared with $ 4,000 (3430 euros) for the standard 155 -mm NATO projectile.
It is believed that the shares of Moscow ammunition are also more than his own capacities from the stakes that he imports from his allies.
In accordance with Media messages Referring to information about South Korea, which leaked this week, North Korea provided Russia with 12 million 152 -mm missiles for use in Ukraine.
Although this number cannot be verified independently, the satellite images analyzed by The Wall Street Journal in December last year showed signs of significant escalation of production facilities in North Korea, as well as an increase in missions in Russia.
How is NATO ability to compare?
We confirmed the statements of the route by studying the comparative ability to produce European allies and the USA, the main manufacturers of NATO.
In 2024, Europe and the United States will produce 1.2 million missiles per year, according to the German Institute of International Affairs and Security in Berlin, compared with 4.5 million, according to estimates, for the production of Russia.
These grades will comply with the statement of Route that Russia makes four times more ammunition a year than its NATO colleagues.
Nevertheless, the Western Alliance seeks to sharply cover the gap in 2025.
The European Commission set a goal increase The production of ammunition of 2 million bullets a year in 2025, while by October the United States seeks to achieve a new goal of 100,000 bullets per month.
Other allies, such as Norway, Great Britain and Canada, also strive to strengthen the supply chains.
While the achievement of these goals will see that NATO has significantly stopped the gap from Russia, it is difficult to fulfill their promises to Western allies in the past.
The European Union lost its goal – to provide Ukraine with a million artillery missiles until March last year, which prompted the Czech Republic to head the international campaign collecting money to provide more ammunition for Kyiv, which has since provided Kyiv.
Since then, the Czech initiative has delivered 1.6 million missiles to Ukraine. The Czech Minister of Foreign Affairs stated in May that financing was provided to continue the program by 2026, but his future depends on the parliamentary elections that should be held in October.
Western retrospectively exposing the resistance of Ukraine?
It is also unclear how many of these Western reserves will be sent to Ukraine in 2025. The government in Kyiv previously stated that ammunition requires about 200,000 ammunition areas per month to withstand Russian attacks on the front line.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky recently stated that Ukraine Hopes to take About 3 million artillery missiles from the allies of this year, including 1.8 million from the Czech leadership program.
But the West, especially Europe, is still struggling to set fire to his industry in ammunition. Explosives – the main core of the ammunition missiles – is not enough one plant in Poland, which is currently produced by Trinitrolo or TNT.
Western goals are also far from the Russians, despite the fact that the Russian economy is almost 25 times less than the total size of the NATO economy.