Everything will start on November 5. Never have the consequences of a presidential election in the United States caused so much concern beforehand. While the outcome of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains uncertain, there is one unanimous prediction. In case of defeat, the former president’s side prepared an unprecedented operation to challenge the results. We know what awaits us: hasty and unfounded announcement of the Republican’s victory, possible local blockades by his supporters to the certification of the results, judicial guerrilla warfare on multiple fronts, even violence caused by isolated groups or individuals. The nightmare would not be a large, centralized “January 6,” like the assault on the Capitol in 2021, but a proliferation of small “January 6s.”
There is a difference from this dark precedent. The arrest of almost 1,300 people for this assault and the sometimes harsh prison sentences imposed on armed militias, such as the Oath Keepers or the Proud Boys, have a certain deterrent effect. Plus, this time federal and local authorities are ready. These worst-case scenarios prompted exceptional security measures to protect local election commissions. Streets will be closed and police patrols will be reinforced. In some places, such as Maricopa County, Arizona, snipers will monitor the roof of the building on November 5. The volunteers in charge of counting also have alert procedures via SMS or walkie-talkies in case of disturbances.
However, the counting process remains fragile, especially because the rules are not unified between states. Three researchers from the Brookings Institution think tank, Norman Eisen, Samara Angel, and Clare Boone, identified fifty sensitive counties in the seven battleground states. According to them, eleven are considered particularly explosive, in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The first incidents have already begun. On Monday, October 28, two ballot boxes collecting early mail-in votes were set on fire in Portland, Oregon and Vancouver, Washington.
The cancer of suspicion
One observation is clear: a cancer is eating away at American democracy: that of suspicion. It develops from stage to microphone, from podcast to site, from meeting to social network. In addition to external interference, such as Russian disinformation operations, it has benefited for four years from a tireless promoter: Donald Trump.
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