As the United States enters another presidential race, an inevitable question arises: Could Donald Trump repeat the feat of 2016 and win the presidency thanks to the Electoral College, even if he does not obtain the majority of the popular vote? The latest studies and simulations suggest that, in a hypothetical showdown with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump could again gain the advantage thanks to the peculiar American electoral system.
The Electoral College: the deciding factor
The Electoral College system allows votes from certain states to have crucial weight in the election. Instead of winning directly by vote total, candidates must win strategic states to obtain the necessary 270 electoral votes. In 2016, it was precisely for this reason that Trump managed to defeat Hillary Clinton, obtaining a majority in key states, even though he lost the popular vote by almost three million votes.
In a hypothetical scenario for 2024, the situation could repeat itself. Although Kamala Harris could get a large number of votes in heavily Democratic states like California and New York, Trump could win if he consolidates in more delicately balanced states, like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida. These states, called swing states, largely decide the outcome of elections and have shown that they can switch parties in any election.
Trump-Clinton popular vote
asset won 62,984,828 votes. Hillary Clinton got 65,853,514 votes.
Trump-Clinton vote percentage
Donald Trump reached the 46.1%. Hillary Clinton we would have finished with 48.2%.
Trump-Clinton electoral vote
The electoral vote is the most importantthanks to the system winner takes all (the winner of each state wins all of that state’s electoral votes). It takes 270 to get to the White House.
Donald Trump won the elections with 304 electoral votes. Hillary Clinton lost the election by receiving 227 votes..
Why did Clinton lose?
The general opinion is that Hillary Clinton fell short in the states of Rust belt (Rust Belt, in the manufacturing states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota). The reality is that Hillary Clinton lost Pennsylvania because Donald Trump successfully mobilized working-middle-class voters in rural areas and small towns, who voted for him in droves..
Clinton followed the usual Democratic formula to win in Pennsylvania: obtain significant margins on cities of Philadelphia And Pittsburgh and predominate by a narrower margin in the suburban counties around Philadelphia. Instead, this strategy has become obsolete, due to Trump’s ability to mobilize the working middle class.
Kamala Harris popularity and challenges
Kamala Harris, as the leading figure in Joe Biden’s administration, faces both challenges and opportunities. Although her experience as vice president and her history as the first African-American and Asian woman in the position give her a unique profile, she has also been criticized for her handling of internal issues and the southern border. Unlike Biden, Harris does not have the same level of popularity in key sectors of the electorate, making her vulnerable in a hypothetical race against Trump.
Even if Harris can mobilize progressive voters and those who value diversity in leadership, the challenge is winning support in traditionally moderate or swing states. Trump, for his part, has a loyal base of supporters, as well as a conservative electorate that continues to support his policies and leadership style.
Trump and his advantage in the rural electorate
Trump has demonstrated a strong ability to attract voters in rural areas, particularly in the central and southern United States. This base of support could give him an advantage in states where the rural vote is decisive. Unlike Harris, whose voting base is concentrated in large cities, Trump enjoys strong support in sparsely populated areas that, while not having high numbers of residents, nonetheless contribute to a number important electoral votes.
Lessons from 2016: Can Harris win the electoral college?
In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s campaign underestimated the importance of the electoral college and focused much of its efforts on winning the popular vote. If Harris is to succeed against Trump, she will need to focus on specific states and adopt a more calculated strategy regarding resources and presence in these swing states. Additionally, he will need to win support from sectors that don’t always vote in presidential elections, such as young people and minorities in swing states.
Possibilities of an unexpected outcome
Even though Trump may have an advantage in the Electoral Collegeis not a guarantee of success. The political landscape has changed since 2016, and so has the electorate. New issues like climate change, the cost of living or the management of the pandemic could tip the scales in favor of the Democrats in certain key states. Additionally, the 2024 elections could see unprecedented turnout from younger voters, who tend to lean more toward the Democratic Party.
The 2024 elections present a scenario similar to that of 2016, with some notable particularities:
Current situation
The competition between Trump and Harris It’s extremely close, with a technical tie in national polls: 51% for Trump and 49% for Harris.[1]. This scenario is remarkably reminiscent of the 2016 situation with Hillary Clinton.
The Electoral College Factor
Even if national polls show a near tie, the Electoral College system could favor Trump. To win, any candidate must reach 270 electoral votes[2].
Decisive States
The battle is focused on seven key states:
– Pennsylvania: 19 electoral votes
– Georgia: 16 electoral votes
– Michigan: 15 electoral votes
– Arizona: 11 electoral votes
– Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes
– Snowfall: 6 electoral votes
Latino Vote
A crucial factor is the Latino vote, traditionally Democratic. This year, however, there are signs of change, with a growing group viewing Trump as a better economic manager.[1]. Democrats’ broken promises on immigration are affecting the loyalty of this part of the electorate.
The 2024 elections are underway, and both asset as Harris They must consider each strategy and each voter to avoid surprises. Although the numbers suggest that Trump may have an advantage in the electoral college, nothing is certain in American politics and the scenario could change quickly.
