Rustam Karakhanli writes…
Last week, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) announced that it had more than doubled its five-year aid package to Armenia, from $120 million to $250 million. USAID, headed by Ruben Vardanyan’s friend Samantha Power, is an independent agency of the US government, and more than half of the foreign aid process is managed through this agency. This increase is a logical continuation of the process by which the collective West officially “took Armenia under its wing” on April 5.
This year, a series of events that took place on the Armenia-West track are complex steps that emerge from a single platform and serve to deepen the alliance in all spheres of relations. Both Europe and the United States are increasing financial aid to Armenia, holding joint military exercises, sanctioning arms sales to Yerevan via western France, intensifying regional activity to sabotage the signing of a final peace agreement with Azerbaijan and preventing the opening of the Zangezur Corridor, increasing political pressure and even not hesitating to boast of a situational alliance with its enemy Iran.
Anyone can characterize it as they wish, but the greatest existential threat of this trend is against Azerbaijan. The versions that the West has pushed Russia out of the region in this way, or that it has strengthened itself in Armenia with the aim of encircling Iran, are correct, but Yerevan is not arming itself against Moscow or Tehran. The increase in Armenia’s military potential serves to fuel the abnormal revanchist tendencies in this country, which is the greatest threat to regional peace.
Although this line displayed by the West serves to push Russia out of the region in a global sense, what is observed in practice creates a different impression. Armenia’s trade turnover with Russia in the last two years has broken all records and has reached more than $8 billion. Even by the end of this year, this figure is expected to reach $16-17 billion. What is the reason for such a surge in the Armenian economy, when no new production areas are launched and no export operations are observed? It is a mystery to ordinary economic experts. In fact, it is not a secret that the main reason is that Armenia plays the role of a bridge in the process of transiting prohibited goods to Russia. A paradoxical situation has emerged: the West is taking steps to “squeeze” Russia out of Armenia, encouraging both the Pashinyan government and the non-governmental sector, supporting the growth of the anti-Moscow climate in the country, and on the other hand, serving to reinforce the military campaign against the civilian population in Ukraine through Yerevan, does not turn a blind eye to the transfer of goods. If the United States did not put pressure on other countries that provide transit services to Russia, this could perhaps be considered normal. But how is it possible that Armenia is allowed and ignored and others are not?
The activation of the Pashinyan government in the arms market is an indicator of the appearance of a large amount of free funds in the Armenian budget. It would be naive to think that the weapons and ammunition exported by India to Armenia, despite the historical and moral connection and political orientation reconciliation, are free. Even France, especially in its current state, is not a country that offers weapons to anyone. There is no doubt that the source of such free funds for purchasing weapons comes from trade with Russia. From this point of view, it would not be correct to frame the aid provided by the US and the West as a whole to Armenia with 250 million dollars from USAID. The largest financial support from the West to Armenia is the growing and mysterious trade volume with Russia. If we explain it with a simple mechanism, the West creates the conditions for Armenia to benefit from the war between Russia and Ukraine, ignores the obtaining of “black money” and Ukraine is left behind.
If we look at statistical indicators, the US ranks fifth in the table of trade volume with Armenia, with only $234 million. This is 35 times less than the relationship between Armenia and Russia – $8 billion 356 million. If trade with Russia is sacrificed for the sake of an alliance with the United States, or if Washington ignores these indicators, then this is a deal with a dirty mechanism. Armenia earns money from Russia and indirectly supports Moscow’s Ukrainian campaign. Although Washington defends and protects Ukraine, it ignores this reality. Pashinyan’s government takes full advantage of this win-win situation: Russia has no say in political cooperation with the United States, and Washington ignores trade with Moscow. The hand is washed, the hand is also washed…
US support for Armenia is not a special achievement of the Pashinyan government. We have not forgotten Washington’s financial support not only for Armenia, but also for a de facto illegal and unrecognized separatist organization on the territory of Azerbaijan, even during the time of the staunchly pro-Russian Kocharyan and the pesky Sargsyan. It may be difficult for US taxpayers, but it was Azerbaijan that saved the average American from half the burden of aiding Armenians, by eradicating separatism. From this point of view, this consistent, stable and continuous policy of Washington is directed against Azerbaijan, but, first of all, it is a problem for its own regional interests. With such behavior, the West further strengthens the hostile status of the ordinary Azerbaijani in the system of geopolitical interests. Given the current state of affairs at the Georgian-Russian level, the growing tension in relations between the West and Tbilisi and their further complication after the upcoming parliamentary elections, US support in the region is quite seismic. Time will show how practical it is to wait only on Armenia. Perhaps this is the only possible option? However, Armenia also has the characteristic of wanting to sit on several chairs at once. Otherwise, it would have long since left the CSTO, the CIS and the Eurasian Union…
