The profits of the different companies in the Ibex 35 will reach record figures in 2024, according to expert estimates, with a banking sector that still benefits from higher interest rates than usual and which will exceed the profits of the year previous. However, Growth this fiscal year will not be a cap on index gains, Because, in general, selectives will report greater profits in 2025, even if this increase will be much more moderate than last year. More specifically, experts expect 65.771 million euros in 2025, or 1.2% more than this year.
The reduction in the Ibex 35 profit increase for next year comes after in 2024 will have been, by far, the index which has experienced the greatest increase in this sense. By EPS (earnings per share), which takes into account the weight of each company within an index and capital increases or share buybacks, the increase in the Ibex 35 in 2025 will be 4% compared to 2024, according to FactSet data. A figure far from the increases of other major markets, such as the S&P 500, with almost 15% more, and I 8%, than the Stoxx 600.
By companies, 70% of the index will see an increase in profits in this range according to estimateswith companies like Enagás moving from recording losses to making profits. According to these estimates, only nine companies will experience a drop in profits, and six of them are banks. At the top of this ranking is Grifols, Acciona, Acciona Energía, Fluidra, ArcelorMitall, Sacyr, Acerinox and Puig like companies that will experience increases of more than 20% in this interval. A more complicated 2024 in the income statement makes the increase in results in 2025 more notable, with these numbers returning to normal in some of these cases. Thus, experts consider that it is the right time to take positions at five of these eight companies right now (Grifols, ArcelorMitall, Sacyr, Acerinox and Puig have the best possible recommendation).
The blood products company, which holds first place in this ranking with a forecast increase in profits of 134% by 2025, has been a special case this year. The company has been one of the great protagonists of the year in the Spanish market since at the beginning of the year a great stock market crash began which erased more than 32% of its total value after the house of analysis Gotham City has released a report highlighting some serious accounting errors in its accounts, from which it has been unable to recover. This fall was accompanied by a deterioration in valuations and estimates, which, however, were not as severe as the stock market reaction. However, a drop in its forecasts in 2024 and the estimated return to normal in 2025 leave its accounts with this strong revaluation. In addition, the public purchase offer according to which the Brookfield fund plans to acquire the Grifols securities and the price of this offer are also there, even if at current prices they are far from being able to exclude the company from the stock market.
This movement is repeated in other companies that will appreciate the most, such as Acciona Energía, which in May lowered the forecasts announced at the beginning of the year regarding the gross operating profit (ebitda) that it will record for the entire year 2024, due to current price forecasts and lower than expected production. Thus, the consensus expects a profit higher by almost 50% in 2025, at 440 million euros. Acciona has increased its position in Acciona Energía since last summer by 5.7% of the capital and thus reached a stake of 88.33%.
The two steel mills (ArcelorMittal and Acerinox) have also faced complications this year with the recession in steel demand and the impact of Chinese steel prices reducing their profits this year. Although uncertainty persists in this market, with Chinese overproduction leading to narrowing margins in the local market, experts are already expecting higher profits in the income statement of both companies.
Sacyr and Fluidra also appear on this list, with respective revaluations of 37% and 30.4%. Following the third quarter results, Bankinter believes that the infrastructure company will be able to achieve the objectives set in the long term (2027). “Sacyr’s results, although slightly below expectations in certain P&L lines, confirm that the company continues to present a growth profile in concessions with solid margins and significant recurrence of its activity,” indicate -they.
Regarding Puig, who debuted on the Ibex last May, the consensus forecasts a profit of 628 million euros in 2025. At the last meeting in which he reported to the market (in the third quarter) , sales of the company’s premium beauty company increased by almost 12% year-on-year and confirms its growth objectives, which encourages investors and experts on the prospects for the years to come.
Ignacio Cantos, ATL analyst, shares the opinion of the expert consensus and does not see a great growth in the total profits of the index, since the banking and electrical sectors, which have a significant weight in it, could be affected by the tax of. the Government, “which makes it very difficult to give visibility to the income statement,” he shares. Cantos believes Inditex will continue to do well, “but it has just had two very good years and comparisons are complicated.” Thus, the expert recalls that the Ibex 35 is “quite cheap currently” (with a 2025 PER of 10.9 times), which will continue to be an incentive even if profit growth is weak.
IG analyst Diego Morín is not too optimistic about growth forecasts for next year. The expert says we could eventually see a slight pick-up in growth as inflation rates fall, but also on the table is “the possibility that this will continue to increase if central banks continue to support a system of liquidity injections. they reduce rates, thus paving the way for a process of stagflation. »
As for the sectors that could be put to the test, Morín highlighted renewable energies, because it is “something that was seen after the victory of Trump and his denial of the climate” and the banking sector, “with declines rates and some of them increasing provisions for fear of a longer-than-expected economic slowdown and with some positive increases after interest rate increases.
On the positive side of the currency, underlines Manuel Pinto, market analyst the utilities sector as one of its favorites for next year. “At present, the industry occupies 20% of the composition of the selective, largely thanks to Iberdrola. Faced with a scenario of numerous rate cuts, highly indebted companies, as is your case, should benefit In addition, because of lower interest, their high dividends generate greater attractiveness when savings products decline in profitability. They are currently trading at a discount to their main competitors in the United States and Europe. we can therefore affirm that they are listed at low prices,” he explains.
For Pinto, another segment to take into account for next year is discretionary consumption, “which could be made up of Inditex and Amadeus, adding 22% to the national selective”, he adds. “In the particular case of Inditex, despite a few years of declining growth and where it seemed that the business was stabilizing, it managed to generate strong sales growth. Its operating margin grew more than expected, which we believe is even more important than sales growth because it shows the company’s investments in space optimization continue to drive efficiencies and operational improvements “, adds the expert.
The dividend incentive
In terms of remuneration, the expected rate for the entire Ibex 35 with next year’s profits will be 5%, which will double the profitability of the 12-month Letters on the secondary market. The Spanish market is known for its generosity in terms of dividends, with some companies devoting a large part of their profits to the distribution of remuneration among their shareholders (called payment).
Juan José Fernández-Figares, director of IIC Management at Link Securities, believes that the dividend of the Spanish index is sustainable over time“and this is reflected in the consensus of analysts that maintains this 5% for 2025 and 2026, since it is supported by the dividends of the banks, Telefónica, Inditex and the profits which together maintain a very high level on the Ibex 35 .
And as expected, banks occupy these leading positions in shareholder remuneration, with Banco Sabadell as leader for 2025 after making a historic acquisition of CaixaBank. The Catalan entity wishes to convince the shareholder of its position in BBVA’s public takeover offer through shareholder remuneration. This is why, after freezing the share buyback that it had already announced following this offer to purchase the Basque entity, Sabadell increased the distribution rate (the percentage of profit allocated to the dividend) to 60 %, which represents the upper part of the range (40-60%). Thus, with expenses for the years 2024-2025, the entity plans to remunerate its shareholders for a total of 2,900 million euros.
“The dividend yield of Spanish banks appears to be one of the great attractions for investors in 2025, reaffirming their relevance within the stock market. With an average yield that reaches 8%, Spanish banks show their commitment to shareholders through high dividends, especially in a context in which other sectors tend to be more cautious when it comes to capital returns,” explains Gustavo Martínez, professor of finance at Francisco Marroquín University and market analyst, By 2025, 17 companies (half the index) would offer a dividend yield above 5%.
IAG and Repsol, the cheapest
The price at which the profits of the Ibex 35 companies will be purchased also reinforces the attractiveness of these companies, including 12 with multipliers less than 10 times. By 2025, IAG and Repsol will continue to fight to be crowned the cheapest value in the index (a fight started in 2024)
The attractive price at which the holding company that owns companies like Iberia, British Airways or Vueling is purchased is due to the fact that the strong revaluation of its shares (it is already the most bullish company in the Ibex 35, surpassing Sabadell) goes hand in hand with an increase in estimated profit of almost 9% for 2025 (reaching the 2,958 million expected by the consensus for 2025).
Banco Santander is, after the airline and the oil company, the cheapest company in the Ibex 35, with a PER of 5.7 times. The entity chaired by Ana Botín is the only banking company that will not see its profit forecast deteriorate for 2025, with a profit forecast practically identical to that of 2024, with 11,944 million euros. The entity obtained a attributable profit of 9,309 million euros between January and September 2024, which represents a 14% increase over one year and exceeds the 9,227.70 million projected by the consensus of analysts of Bloomberg. “In an increasingly unstable geopolitical environment, we are convinced that we will continue this strong dynamic both during the rest of the year and in 2025, achieving all our objectives,” Botín then added.
