The Meir Amit Terrorism Information Center has published a new assessment. Analysts say recent events have impacted Hezbollah’s capabilities.
The assassination of top military leaders of Nasrallah and Hezbollah in recent weeks has had significant consequences. Combined with increasing IDF attacks on Hezbollah’s command structure and strategic capabilities across Lebanon, this has reduced the group’s ability to operate at high intensity against Israel, at least in the short term.
Hashem Safi al-Din, chairman of Hezbollah’s executive council, is considered the leading candidate to succeed Nasrallah. He is known to have close ties to Iran.
The assessment shows that Hezbollah is reorganizing its ranks in coordination and with the support of Iran. The group is preparing to continue fighting Israel, in part to ensure its survival.
“Hezbollah does not separate the continuation of hostilities in Lebanon from the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip,” the report said.
The institute adds that any Hezbollah decision on a large-scale, coordinated response depends on Iran’s position. This can happen independently or in coordination with other members of the “axis of resistance.”
So far, senior representatives of the Iranian regime have refrained from declaring their intention to respond directly to Israel for the liquidation of Nasrallah and the commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon.
“Iran needs to recognize the new reality and prepare accordingly,” the report says. He adds that Iran seeks to maintain its policy of avoiding a regional war.
The report also notes the Iranian president’s efforts to resume dialogue with Western countries on the nuclear issue. This is aimed at easing international sanctions.
However, Iran’s delay in responding to these developments could have consequences. A delay in responding to the assassination of Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh and an evasion or delay in responding to Nasrallah’s ouster could undermine Iran’s influence among members of the “axis of resistance,” the report warns.
Nasrallah was considered the second most important leader of the “resistance axis” after the Supreme Leader of Iran.
This situation poses a difficult challenge for Iran and Hezbollah as it balances regional influence with the risk of escalation.
Cursor previously wrote that, according to Bloomberg, Hezbollah commanders are fleeing en masse to Syria and Iran.
