Until Thursday this week, the eyes of investors and analysts on both sides of the Atlantic were focused on the meeting of the ECB on interest rates. Today, after learning of the reduction announced by Christine Lagarde during the press conference after the meeting with the members of the central continental entity, the market’s attention turns once again to the creation of jobs in UNITED STATES.
These data appeared to be the best thermometer of the evolution of the American economy. At least this is how Jérôme Powell, president of the Fed, who has repeatedly assured that Unemployment is one of the most closely watched variables facing a future silver price decision in the United States.. “The employment growth trend is stable throughout the year, and the evidence is both the employment rate (which has already returned to pre-pandemic levels) and monthly growth average employment in 2024 (measured by non-agricultural payroll), which remains at 204,000, already above the pre-pandemic average (2011-2019) of 194,000″, underlines the team of investment of Portocolom AV.
This week, after lowering the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.1%, definitively putting an end to the increases observed at the beginning of the summer, the focus will be on the capacity of the economy of the north-eastern country. American to create more than the 241,000 jobs created in August. .
Sales of housing, new and used, “will also attract the attention of analysts”, explains Allianz Global Investors, stressing that in the United States, it will be necessary to monitor “orders for durable consumer goods, which should experience a downward correction due to strikes which affected several sectors last month.
With all of this, the market has repositioned itself in terms of expectations of Fed rate cuts. The president of the central entity himself has confirmed in recent statements that if the economy continues on the expected path, it is likely that we will see two declines. of 25 basis points by the end of the year, when the market fell by 100.
PMI pending
This week the PMI indicators of the main economies will also be known. “Manufacturing momentum has been subdued for some time and there appears to be little chance of a rebound until the uncertainty of the US elections is resolved,” said Allianz Global Investors, taking a close look at the PMI indexes of the service sector.
“The evolution of last month was very different in the United States (positive rebound) and in the Eurozone (disappointment after the Olympics), so there is a lot to interpret from the new data,” they say.
