Abiy Ahmed often uses speeches to his army to convey subtle messages to his rivals in the region. However, reading between the lines was of no use on Sunday, September 8, during the military tribute he presided over in Addis Ababa. The Ethiopian Prime Minister then recalled that his country “I would not compromise with anyone on the sovereignty and honour of Ethiopia” and demanded a “nationalist patriotism” of its population to resist “foreign powers” who accuses of wanting “destabilize the region”A martial and threatening statement in tune with the war of words unfolding in the Horn of Africa.
The region has been experiencing severe turmoil since the announcement of the maritime agreement between Ethiopia and the self-proclaimed republic of Somaliland on 1Ahem January 2024, which would allow Addis Ababa to gain direct access to the Red Sea. The treaty fuels tensions because it tramples on Somalia’s sovereignty, as Somaliland is not recognised as independent by the international community. When formalising this agreement, had the Ethiopian Head of State understood the magnitude of the regional explosion it would provoke? Nine months later, a cold war took hold in the Horn of Africa.
“We are seeing a rapid realignment of regional alliances and the intervention of foreign powers”sums up Cameron Hudson, a CIA veteran and security specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. As well as permanent invectives between neighbors and a proliferation of military cooperation agreements.
Was this escalation avoidable? Obsessed with the maritime issue, Addis Ababa has turned it into a “existential question” challenging international law and regional stability. In October 2023, already during a military parade, Abiy Ahmed mentioned the “natural law” of their country to have access to the sea to free the Ethiopians from their “geographical prison”. According to him, the country of some 120 million inhabitants would be the victim of a “historical injustice” since the loss of its Red Sea ports following Eritrea’s independence in 1993.
Somalia seeks allies
Under the agreement with Somaliland, Ethiopia would be granted a 20-kilometre strip of land for 50 years, to build a commercial port and a naval base. In return, it would agree to recognise the self-proclaimed republic that unilaterally seceded from Somalia in 1991. A red line for Mogadishu.
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