EURIBOR for twelve months, the indicator mentioned in most variables of mortgage loans in Spain will close June unchanged, again in the environment of 2.08 %, in the context of global economic uncertainty, although it will continue to bring benefits with sales in his loans.
In the absence of a session at the end of the month, the average and preliminary rate of Euribor is located at 2081%, as well as May, May, May, With the fact that the indicator could break with a strip of four consistent months of falls.
Despite the closure without monthly changes, the euribor will fall again at the interseign rate, Since June 2024, it amounted to 3650%Field
This will lead, for example, for an average mortgage loan from 150,000 euros to 25 years and With EURIBOR percentage plus 1%, The fees will be reduced by about 130 euros per month or almost 1550 euros per year.
Euribor, which is usually expected before the movements of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) It remains without variations After the president of the agency Kristina Lagarda provided on June 5 that the organization reaches the current bear cycle of interest rates.
Just on that day, the ECB reduced types in a quarter, to 2%, the lowest level from the end of 2022.
In this context, in which the market expects a break in July, and possible new reductions at the end of the year, Euribor remains stable.
Ebury analysts believe that if trade negotiations with the United States will not give an unexpected reason, worse, “The bank must continue to cross at the next July meeting”And expect that we will have to wait until September or October, so that the last decrease in types to occur.
Before that, there is a key date: on July 9, when the President of the United States Donald Trump, refused by the President of the United States, in order to reach an agreement and be able to reduce the rate of mutual tariffs.
“From Ebury we believe that the ECB will take everything or almost all summer to assess the situation with the tariff before making a decision about the types. Therefore, in the absence of big surprises, We could see how Euriber is sitting on a plateau in the summer And until the body is ready to make more flexible in this cycle, its monetary policy, ”they conclude.
On the other hand, Helpmycash.com analysts emphasized that the indicator retained “calm”, despite geopolitical tension, although they note that “this is a change in the tendency”.
Helpmycash Miquel Riera Analyst explains that Euribor will not close two reasons: One who has already advanced to reduce types, and secondly, for a complex general geopolitical situation and, in particular, for the conflict between Israel and Iran, which caused fear of rising oil prices and gas.
“An increase in energy price can cause a rebound in the inflation of the eurozone,” warns an analyst who also warns that if this scenario is executed, it will be completed, The ECB may be forced to save their types stagnant or even load them.
In this context, and after stopping the fire between Iran and Israel, the forecasts on Euribir “returning to the starting point”, according to Rirea, which expects the ECB to complete another cut in the remaining part of the year until it leaves the types by 1.75 %.
Given this scenario, the forecast of the HelpmyCash expert is that EURIBOR closes the year value from 1.9% to 2% “, Although he admits that it is difficult to create forecasts when the geopolitical situation “as changes as current.”
Iaherro experts also emphasize that the EURIBOR bassist trend has ceased, and they hope that it will be stable, at least until September, when the market will be reactivated after the summer, and when it can be more details analyzing how the conflict in the Middle East affects inflation.
